The Drake equation and the multiverse

The well-known Drake equation, created by Dr. Frank Drake in 1960 to predict the number of extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way, gets an upgrade to take into account the concept of multiple universes. Turns out our knowledge is so limited as to make the exercise essentially impossible.

From the second link:

But there’s a problem: this is not an equation. To form a true Drake-like argument, Gleiser would need to assign probabilities to each of these sets allowing him to write an equation in which the assigned probabilities multiplied together, on one side of the equation, equal the fraction of universes where complex life emerges on the other side.

Here he comes up against one of the great problems of modern cosmology–that without evidence to back up their veracity, many ideas in modern cosmology are little more than philosophy. So assigning a probability to the fraction of universes in the multiverse in which the fundamental constants and laws satisfy the anthropic principle is not just hard, but almost impossible to formulate at all.

Also:

Gleiser’s take on the Drake equation for the Multiverse is an interesting approach. What it tells us, however, is that our limited understanding of the universe today does not allow us to make any reasonable estimate of the number of intelligent lifeforms in the multiverse (more than one). And given the limits on what we can ever know about other universes, it’s likely that we’ll never be able to do much better than that.

Life in a parallel universe?

Maybe so.

The release:

Across the multiverse: FSU physicist considers the big picture

Alejandro Jenkins writes in Scientific American that life may exist — in other universes

		IMAGE: Alejandro Jenkins is a researcher at Florida State University. Click here for more information.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. ⎯ Is there anybody out there? In Alejandro Jenkins’ case, the question refers not to whether life exists elsewhere in the universe, but whether it exists in other universes outside of our own.

While that might be a mind-blowing concept for the layperson to ponder, it’s all in a day’s work for Jenkins, a postdoctoral associate in theoretical high-energy physics at The Florida State University. In fact, his deep thoughts on the hypothetical “multiverse” — think of it as a mega-universe full of numerous smaller universes, including our own — are now receiving worldwide attention, thanks to a cover article he co-wrote for the January 2010 issue of Scientific American magazine.

In “Looking for Life in the Multiverse,” Jenkins and co-writer Gilad Perez, a theorist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel, discuss a provocative hypothesis known as the anthropic principle, which states that the existence of intelligent life (capable of studying physical processes) imposes constraints on the possible form of the laws of physics.

“Our lives here on Earth — in fact, everything we see and know about the universe around us — depend on a precise set of conditions that makes us possible,” Jenkins said. “For example, if the fundamental forces that shape matter in our universe were altered even slightly, it’s conceivable that atoms never would have formed, or that the element carbon, which is considered a basic building block of life as we know it, wouldn’t exist. So how is it that such a perfect balance exists? Some would attribute it to God, but of course, that is outside the realm of physics.”

The theory of “cosmic inflation,” which was developed in the 1980s in order to solve certain puzzles about the structure of our universe, predicts that ours is just one of countless universes to emerge from the same primordial vacuum. We have no way of seeing those other universes, although many of the other predictions of cosmic inflation have recently been corroborated by astrophysical measurements.

Given some of science’s current ideas about high-energy physics, it is plausible that those other universes might each have different physical interactions. So perhaps it’s no mystery that we would happen to occupy the rare universe in which conditions are just right to make life possible. This is analogous to how, out of the many planets in our universe, we occupy the rare one where conditions are right for organic evolution.

“What theorists like Dr. Perez and I do is tweak the calculations of the fundamental forces in order to predict the resulting effects on possible, alternative universes,” Jenkins said. “Some of these results are easy to predict; for example, if there was no electromagnetic force, there would be no atoms and no chemical bonds. And without gravity, matter wouldn’t coalesce into planets, stars and galaxies.

“What is surprising about our results is that we found conditions that, while very different from those of our own universe, nevertheless might allow — again, at least hypothetically — for the existence of life. (What that life would look like is another story entirely.) This actually brings into question the usefulness of the anthropic principle when applied to particle physics, and might force us to think more carefully about what the multiverse would actually contain.”

“Looking for Life in the Multiverse” can be purchased, or accessed by Scientific American subscribers, at the magazine’s Web site. The January issue of the magazine is also on sale now throughout the United States.

“Having an article in Scientific American is a magnificent accomplishment, but being selected for the cover story is special indeed,” said Mark Riley, chairman of the Department of Physics at Florida State. “My congratulations to Dr. Jenkins and our High Energy Physics Group.”

Jenkins has degrees from Harvard University and the California Institute of Technology, and he previously conducted postgraduate research on the topic of alternative universes while at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Despite all of his training, however, the Scientific American article was unexpected.

“I am very proud of our research, but to be honest, I think that this had something to do with the fact that people are naturally intrigued by speculative ideas about cosmology and the ‘big picture.’

“The idea of parallel universes, in particular, is one that many people find exciting,” Jenkins said. “The current season of (the Fox-TV comedy) ‘Family Guy’ recently premiered with an episode called ‘Road to the Multiverse,’ which was premised on the idea that one can visit other universes — although that seems impossible given what we know about physics. Nevertheless, whether other universes actually exist is a question that has consequences for our understanding of physics in this world. I think our research raises important questions in that regard.”

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Behavior in virtual worlds

More research into social interaction in a virtual environment. A very interesting field — I’ve blogged about this type of research before — and becoming more important as more people spend higher and higher percentages of time living “virtually” instead of engaging in face-to-face contact.

The release news article:

Understanding interaction in virtual worlds

Wed, 23 Dec 2009 14:33:00 GMT

New cinema blockbuster, Avatar, leapt to the top of box office charts as soon as it came out — a stunning 3D realisation of an alien world. Our fascination with themes of escape to other fantastic places and the thrill of immersion in virtual environments also attracts millions to assume new identities in online virtual worlds.

Now researchers at The University of Nottingham, SRI International in Silicon Valley California, two Canadian universities — Simon Fraser and York — and online games developer Multiverse are to begin a new three-year international project examining online behaviour in virtual gaming environments.

The Virtual Environment Real User Study (Verus) will explore the relationships between the real-world characteristics of gamers and the individual activities and group dynamics of their avatars in online virtual worlds. Investigating how individuals interact within online environments will have many benefits.

Computer generated imagery (CGI) in the movies has made possible unprecedented levels of realism. The imagined other-world setting of Avatar, called Pandora, lived in director James Cameron’s mind for 20 years before CGI could realise his vision — and he also opted for high-definition 3D to involve audiences further.

Cameron, the Oscar-winning director of science-fiction epics like The Terminator, Aliens and The Abyss, sits on the advisory board of one Verus research partner, Multiverse. CGI in movies has developed in tandem with technological advances in computer games development, and some games sales are overtaking movies.

After its launch in November, computer game Modern Warfare 2 became the biggest entertainment product launch in history, yielding sales of $550 million in five days.

Researchers have already been studying virtual world environments, not just to help enhance the entertainment value of online games, but also to increase their effectiveness as tools for teaching and learning, professional training and collaborative work. To date, however, few coordinated investigations of virtual world behaviours and real-world users have been conducted across different cultures.

To address this shortcoming, Verus researchers will recruit volunteers and observe their gaming activity at multiple locations worldwide. The studies will take place in computer laboratories, Internet cafes and other popular gaming environments. In these settings, researchers will interview and track the volunteers as they play online in virtual worlds such as Second Life and World of Warcraft, as well as in other virtual environments that have been specially designed for the project.

Dr Thomas Chesney, Lecturer in Information Systems at Nottingham University Business School, is co-Principal Investigator with Dr John Murray from Silicon Valley-based SRI International, a leading independent non-profit scientific research institute.

Dr Chesney said: “Virtual world interfaces are likely to increase in popularity and they could even become the main way we access information in the future. SRI has assembled an international team with complementary strengths to study virtual world behaviour and it is an honour to be part of that.

“This project has the potential to contribute significantly to our understanding of computer mediated communication,” he added.

John Murray PhD, who leads the project at SRI, said: “We have formed a strong, multidisciplinary team of international researchers and organisations with extensive knowledge of behaviours in virtual worlds, as well as in experimental economics, social and behavioural sciences, education research, linguistics, cognitive engineering and artificial intelligence.”

“We anticipate that the study’s findings will significantly enhance SRI’s existing capabilities in the study and use of virtual worlds, especially for our work for clients in the fields of education, simulation and training.”

The research will be carried out in collaboration with other academic colleagues at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, Canada, and York University in Toronto, Canada. Multiverse, a leading gaming platform developer in California, which will provide specialised virtual environments for the study.

The controlled gaming experiments will take place at Nottingham University Business School in the United Kingdom and at Simon Fraser University and York University in Canada. Research will include human-computer interaction studies, user surveys and questionnaires, on-site participant observations and other ethnographic methods of study.

The team will invite participants to contribute their own perspectives on their avatars (virtual identities) and themselves, and explain how they see and experience the virtual environments in which they play.

Education Professor Suzanne de Castell from Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, Canada, said: “A small sample will be, initially at least, studied more in depth to see whether using technologies like eye tracking and skin temperature may reveal significant objective physiological correlations between players’ real-world states and virtual-world situations and activities.”

Director of Nottingham University Business School in the UK, Professor Leigh Drake, added: “Our expertise in experimental and behavioural economics, and relating to behaviour in virtual worlds, combined with the additional strengths we will contribute from our role in The University of Nottingham’s Horizon Digital Economy Hub, represents a significant contribution to this project.

“We are delighted to be working in partnership with Simon Fraser University and York University in Canada, where we already have strong links with faculty at the Schulich School of Business through our research in issues relating to sustainability and business ethics.”

— Ends —

Notes to editors: Nottingham University Business School is one of the UK’s leading centres for management education and ranks among the world’s leading business schools in the 2009 Financial Times and The Economist 2009 Global Top 100 rankings. In the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE), 70 per cent of the School’s research was rated as either ‘internationally excellent’ or ‘world-leading,’ ranking it 6th in the UK.

The School ranks 1st in the UK, 3rd in Europe and 23rd globally in the Aspen Institute’s Top 100Beyond Grey Pinstripes ranking of the world’s most innovative MBA programmes that lead the way in integrating social, environmental, and ethical issues into management education and research.

The Business School has pioneered entrepreneurship teaching and research at Nottingham and the University won the 2008-2009 Times Higher Education ‘Entrepreneurial University of the Year’ award. The University provides innovative and top quality teaching, undertakes world-changing research, and attracts talented staff and students from 150 nations.

The University of Nottingham provides innovative and top quality teaching, undertakes world-changing research, and attracts talented staff and students from 150 nations. It is ranked in the UK’s Top 10 and the World’s Top 100 universities by the Shanghai Jiao Tong (SJTU) and Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings.

More than 90 per cent of research at The University of Nottingham is of international quality, according to RAE 2008, with almost 60 per cent of all research defined as ‘world-leading’ or ‘internationally excellent’. Research Fortnight analysis of RAE 2008 ranks the University 7th in the UK by research power. In 27 subject areas, the University features in the UK Top Ten, with 14 of those in the Top Five.

Described by The Times as Britain’s “only truly global university”, it has invested continuously in award-winning campuses in the United Kingdom, China and Malaysia. Twice since 2003 its research and teaching academics have won Nobel Prizes. Nottingham has won the Queen’s Award for Enterprise in both 2006 (International Trade) and 2007 (Innovation, School of Pharmacy).

Nottingham was designated as a Science City in 2005 in recognition of its rich scientific heritage, industrial base and role as a leading research centre. Nottingham has since embarked on a wide range of business, property, knowledge transfer and educational initiatives (www.science-city.co.uk) in order to build on its growing reputation as an international centre of scientific excellence. The University of Nottingham is a partner in Nottingham: the Science City.