David Kirkpatrick

March 8, 2008

Obama wins Wisconsin

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 5:31 pm

With 96% reporting according to CNN.com, Obama wins the Wisconsin caucus 59% to 40%.

Not unexpected since Obama has been 12-3 over Clinton in caucuses before today’s vote. I do expect some blowback against Clinton’s negativity from the electorate going forward. All that said, this primary season is an odd animal. Clinton only does well from behind. She falters after any gain.

After this bit of news, I may sit out the general election if Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Now that McCain is associating with the Bush 43 regime, including Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman, he’s damaged goods in my eye.

It’s no longer a slogan — a vote for Obama is truly a vote for a wholesale change in US politics. A necessary change.

Update — final tally: Obama 61%, Clinton 38%

February 20, 2008

Wisconsin Dem fallout

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:15 pm

Obama wins in a somewhat surprising landslide last night in Wisconsin.

Here’s a bit from Ben Smith:

Senator Barack Obama picked up steam with ninth straight victory in Wisconsin, beating Senator Hillary Clinton in a state where she had no clear excuse for defeat, and leaving her no leeway at all for further major losses.

His win sets the stage for showdowns in Texas and Ohio on March 4, two states Clinton’s supporters acknowledge she must win.

Here in another piece from Politico Clinton’s problems seem to be mounting according to exit poll data. The post says Obama neutralized Clinton’s strength with women voters and “devastated” her with men.

The post goes on to say:

Obama also demonstrated continued improvement with whites, working class Democrats, and rural and suburban voters since Super Tuesday.

He split white women, marking about a 10-point improvement since early February. He also won half of married women, and even won single women. Obama took six in ten white men, a demographic that has shifted between the two candidates throughout the race. His white male support also marked about a 10-point improvement since Super Tuesday.

Regionally, the news was no better for Clinton. Obama won a majority of suburban voters, something Clinton did on Super Tuesday. He split rural voters, whom Clinton had won by about 20 points two weeks ago. Clinton also had won a slight majority of urban voters then. Obama won Wisconsin city dwellers by about a two to one ratio.

Clinton is in serious trouble if Texas is an absolute must-win, and it seriously looks that way. There are signs her team is already spinning for a possible loss in Texas, something that was unthinkable for them very recently.

Her “ready to lead on day one” team has acknowledged they miscounted the way delegates were awarded in the Lone Star State. They over-counted the number of delegates coming from the Latino heavy Valley, an assumed Clinton stronghold, and under-counted the delegates coming from urban Houston and Dallas, two areas of Obama strength.

And that’s not even taking into account the weird primary-plus-caucus of this Texas vote. Obama has excelled in caucuses, and doesn’t seem to be as caught with his pants down, so to speak, as the Clinton campaign on the Texas vote.

At this point I wonder if Clinton is willing to step aside if she loses Texas, or realistically if the vote is even close. Even the worst case scenarios for her campaign that had Obama dominating post-Tsunami Tuesday February didn’t take into account a series of complete blow-outs. It was always guessed with the Democrat’s proportional delegates split, she could hold her own pledged delegate-wise even losing. Instead she’s been losing by close to, or over, 60% in many states.

Obama has the pledged delegates and all the momentum. My guess is after Wisconsin, the mountain just got too high for Clinton. The fat lady hasn’t sung, but she’s done warming up and is standing stage right waiting on her cue.

February 19, 2008

Wisconsin vote

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 8:04 pm

Polls just closed in Wisconsin and CNN calls the GOP vote for McCain (surprise.) The Democratic side is too close to call, but exit polls indicate Obama has the lead. If he wins Wisconsin that’ll make nine states in a row. That’s some momentum.

I’ll periodically update this page tonight with fresh numbers. As usual, all numbers will come from CNN unless otherwise noted.

Update 8:20 — CNN just projected an Obama win.

9:05 — Right now with 28% of the vote in Obama leads 55% to 44%. If he gets to 60% or higher with all votes in, Clinton should seriously consider conceding tonight. She won’t, of course, and will at least fight on through March 4.

Some serious holes are being punched in her core message right now. She’s running a statistical dead-heat with Obama in Texas, one of her three latest firewall states (Pennsylvania and Ohio round out that trifecta.)

All the big mo is going Obama’s way. The ongoing memes about Clinton are how her campaign resembles Giuliani’s failed efforts by focusing on big states and ignoring smaller states and caucuses. Ouch. Her readiness to lead on day one? She can’t even figure out how the delegates are distributed in Texas. A potential loss her campaign is already spinning in a state she fully expected to win as late as last week.

9:10 — I know other states, namely Washington and Hawaii, are voting today. I don’t have any number for either at the moment. Anyway I bet Obama will get Hawaii 100% to nil. And I’m just barely joking there.

And I know the GOP is voting tonight, too. With a little over 30% of the vote in, Huckabee is pulling over a third of the vote. I’d say conservatives are still involved in a bit of protest voting. Ron Paul is back there, but he’s getting some votes

10:50 86% reporting and Obama’s up to 58%. Considering recent polls had this vote pretty tight, this is a blowout. His numbers are actually rising as more of the vote comes in. The Washington vote looks pretty close, but Obama’s leading there right now.

Huckabee is actually running behind Romney by a hair in Washington.

11:15 — Final update of the night. With almost half the Washington vote in, Obama leads 50% to 47% and will likely take the state. Over at the GOP McCain obviously leads, but Huckabee has taken a tiny lead over Romney for the runner-up slot. Each is pulling 21% of the vote.

February 18, 2008

Wisconsin votes tomorrow

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 11:03 pm

Get ready for another Tuesday of voting. Washington and Wisconsin are holding primaries for both the GOP and Democratic Party. Hawaii is having a Dem caucus.

Of course the state to watch is Wisconsin on the Dem side. Polls are running pretty close, with Obama holding a slight edge overall when I last checked. This vote is Clinton’s best hope to avoid a wipeout through post-Tsunami Tuesday February.