David Kirkpatrick

June 17, 2008

The numbers are favoring Obama

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:23 pm

it’s pretty early in the race, but the current numbers look very favorable for Obama. On top of that you have to guess he’s going to get some level of bounce from any debate/town hall meeting/joint appearance with McCain.

I’ve already blogged on outing FiveThirtyEight.com blogger Poblano as Baseball Prospectus writer Nate Silver.

Here’s some great analysis and number crunching from FiveThirtyEight on battleground states:

Those with field experience may recognize the conventional wisdom/general rule that 5 points is the most a great field program’s ground game can make up against an accurate poll of voter preference.

According to 538 regression analysis, there are currently eleven states closer than 5 points, most of which show McCain with a narrow lead to defend.

In order of closeness and color coded by who currently leads, they are:

1. Virginia, 0.2%
2. Missouri, 0.3%
3. Nevada, 0.6%
4. New Hampshire, 1.0%
5. Michigan, 1.5%
6. Ohio, 1.6%
7. Indiana, 1.7%
8. North Carolina, 3.3%
9. North Dakota, 3.8%
10. Florida, 4.0%
11. Montana, 4.5%

Electorally, the 39 states and DC that lie outside this 5-point range: Obama 252, McCain 157.

For what it’s worth, there are twelve states between 5 and 10 points, and each candidate has 6 of them. Obama’s are Colorado (+5.1%), Pennsylvania (+5.7%), New Mexico (+6.3%), Wisconsin (+6.4%), Iowa (+8.7%), and New Jersey (+9.4%), for a total of 67 EVs. McCain’s are Alaska (+6.1%), South Dakota (+6.6%), West Virginia (+8.2%), Louisiana (+8.9%), South Carolina (+8.9%) and Georgia (+9.9%), for a total of 43 EVs.


May 30, 2008

Poblano unmasked

Filed under: Politics, Sports — Tags: , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 3:28 pm

The FiveThirtyEight blogger who’s applied a successful statistics-based approach to predicting the races so far has revealed himself to be an actual statistician — for Baseball Prospectus. Poblano=Nate Silver.

I’ll have to say I enjoy football stats, and the guys over at Football Outsiders who do the Football Prospectus, more than baseball stats, but I’m not surprised at all a baseball statistician can take the enormous amount of polling data out there and make more (and more correct) sense out of it all than the pollsters themselves and certainly more sense than math and stats challenged journalists and pundits.