This is GREAT news for John McCain …

… he wins Missouri!

Gingrich on the GOP

Not at a good place right now.

From the WSJ Political Perceptions blog link:

Republican hand-wringing about the state of the party after the election losses continues apace. “The Republican Party right now is like a midsize college team trying to play in the Superbowl,” Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich tells Roger Simon of Politico. “It is pretty hard to say our losses were because of John McCain’s campaign. McCain performed way above plausibility compared to where the Republican president was in the polls. We have to look honestly at what went wrong.” Simon writes: “Gingrich said the fundraising capacity of the left in the last election proved astonishing and far outstripped what Republicans were able to gather…The question now, Gingrich went on, is whether Barack Obama intends to govern from the left or not. Simon says Gingrich’s bottom line is this: “Gingrich said that the best thing the Republican Party could do right now is stop worrying about the Republican Party. ‘We need to worry about the nation…Wal-Mart doesn’t get ahead by attacking Sears but by offering better value.’”

 

Someone at the RNC better shut down the Palin media tour …

… unless the GOP is truly looking to collapse in on itself. Doesn’t anyone in the Republican braintrust get that Palin may excite a fringe element of the base, but has exactly zero national political possibilities right now?

Every interview exposes some new aspect of her personality that turns more people off?

Here’s something I wrote right after the election:

One thing I did find funny is after McCain completed his concession speech, Palin turned to the mic briefly as though she were going to speak as well. The mic was clearly off, the smile burned off her face and she stalked to the side stage to follow the McCains down the stairway. Today she’s being excoriated for losing the election.

What’s amazing is I was totally guessing that Palin wanted to speak based on her body language and the way she approached the microphone.

Turns out I was completely right.

From the second link:

One of the more disconcerting leaks about Gov. Sarah Palin turned out to be true.

Ms. Palin, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, arrived in Phoenix, Ariz., on election night hoping to deliver her own concession speech. “It was a great speech,” Ms. Palin told Matt Lauer on the “Today” show on Tuesday.

Aides to her running mate, Senator John McCain, told her it was not customary for the No. 2 to speak, she said. “But, you know, I thought, even if it was unprecedented, so what, you know?” Ms. Palin told Mr. Lauer. “Geez, let’s do something a little bit out of the box there.”

And now she is. Unleashed and not humbled, Ms. Palin is on a speed date with history, upending protocol as she goes. She put herself on full display, in interviews with NBC and Fox News before Mr. McCain had a chance to take a no-victory lap on “The Tonight Show.” And she has many more appearances scheduled throughout the week, including a star turn at the Republican Governors Association meeting in Miami on Thursday.

I can’t believe the Republican National Committee finds this acceptable, and even more shocking would be if it is, in fact, unacceptable and the group is powerless to stop her.

The only reasonable explanation is she’s being allowed (or maybe even encouraged) to continue the media blitz to completely end all electoral possibilities. The give her enough rope to really hang herself trick. If this isn’t the case, the GOP deserves every bit of pain it’s bringing upon itself.

Thoughts on Obama and the new USA

Congratulations to Barack Obama, soon to be sworn in as the forty-fourth president of the United States of America. It’s been written everywhere, but this truly is a historic moment for the US. A black president won’t heal racial strife, but it fundamentally changes the way everyone, of every race, views the issue.

One thing is very clear — the United States will never be what it was just last week. I, for one, think that’s a great thing. Great for black people, great for white people, great for Hispanics, great for Asians, great for American indians, and so on. My point is, hopefully from now on we’ll be much less one of those labels and just simply “Americans.” United and living in the greatest nation of this world.

Obama needed to have a good speech last night. His acceptance speech was great. He didn’t cheer his victory, but he did acknowledge the history of his achievement and he extended a welcome hand to the entire nation, and really the entire world. With one election America became great again.

McCain’s speech was great as well. Can’t say so much for aspects of the crowd who booed and catcalled during the oratory, but McCain worked to heal the raw wounds of a hard fought, and sometimes nasty, campaign.

One thing I did find funny is after McCain completed his concession speech, Palin turned to the mic briefly as though she were going to speak as well. The mic was clearly off, the smile burned off her face and she stalked to the side stage to follow the McCains down the stairway. Today she’s being excoriated for losing the election.

I don’t think she lost the election. I was leaning very heavily for Obama, but the Palin choice made the decision for me. I couldn’t in good conscience put someone of her very meager talent (maybe should put “talents” there … ) that close to the White House.

This race was Obama’s to lose, but McCain had a shot before he picked Palin. I do think she turned an Obama win into an Obama landslide.

Right now, to paraphrase JJ Grey, the sun is shining down and I feel fine. Today is truly a new day in America, and that makes me smile.

Results are coming in …

… and I’m going to try very, very hard to not live blog. Medical crisis in the household has been taken care of, so I’m going to be all over the results and numbers.

It’ll be interesting to see who calls it for Obama first. Of course Drudge practically has already based on his exit polling “numbers.” If somehow McCain wins this thing — basically impossible if the FiveThirtyEight gang aren’t completely lost in space — the United States better buckle down for some serious, society-wrecking riots. The black community and left wing have all but been promised with a kiss an Obama win in the media today.

Election day 538 projection

Here’s the final FiveThirtyEight projection before the polls open here in a few hours.

Did much lighter blogging yesterday (read: none) because of a medical emergency, and possibly might not be able to do much today.

Update — Actually here’s the absolute final projection taking into account the straggler polls. Even worse news for McCain. And thanks to the gang at FiveThirtyEight for the incredible number crunching over this electoral season. They may have created a sea-change in political polling. An often seamy and slanted part of the game.

Cheney endorses McCain

In a move the McCain campaign probably looks at as a, “Thanks, but no thanks,” the most unpopular vice president in US history officially endorsed McCain.

Since Obama’s campaign has worked hard to tie McCain to the Bush 43 administration, this seems to be better news for his last-minute news cycle and can’t do anything but hurt McCain.

From the link:

A few moments ago in Ohio, Barack Obama tweaked his ongoing mockery of Dick Cheney’s McCain endorsement a bit.

“Yesterday, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location,” Obama said. “He said that he is, and I quote, ‘Delighted to support John McCain.’ He’s delighted. You’ve never seen Dick Cheney delighted before. But he is. That’s kind of hard to picture.”

“So I would like to congratulate Senator McCain on this endorsement,” Obama continued, “because he really earned it. He worked hard for it.”

McCain has been such a loyal supporter of the Bush-Cheney agenda that the opportunity to endorse him has made even Cheney smile. Funny.

Disinformation from McCain’s campaign

Marc Ambinder does a thorough fisking of the last-ditch McCain campaign memo. It’s not pretty for the GOP candidate.

One point stands out here (Ambinder’s thoughts in italics):

Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn’t have the votes to win.

Maybe Obama is bluffing; but David Plouffe isn’t stupid. 

 

 

One key point here is, from every credible source Obama’s been buying into new markets, and even odd markets such as video game placements, because he’s so flush with advertising cash he’s seeking places to put it.

That said, McCain has been reserving his meager resources for the final push and is expected to outspend Obama in these closing days:

In the final days of the campaign, our television presence will be bigger and broader than the Obama campaign’s presence. The full Republican effort – the RNC’s Independent Expenditure and the McCain campaign will out-buy Barack Obama and the Democrats by just about 10 million dollars.

True 

Could Obama win Georgia?

The guys at FiveThirtyEight think it’s a long shot, but absolutely possible. That would be unbelievable.

From the link:

What To Watch For

It’s entirely possible Georgia will give the Democratic Party its 60th Senate seat on Election Night, if Jim Martin beats Saxby Chambliss. All the House seats are pretty much safe, with incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall in central Georgia facing the toughest re-election in Georgia’s Republican-gerrymandered districts. Republicans are on defense all across the board again this cycle, so if Marshall survived in 2006, he should pull it off again in 2008. If the polls close in the eastern time zone and the nets can’t call Georgia for John McCain because it’s “too close to call,” we’ll all know who the next President-Elect will be.

And here’s the first November projection:

As always, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

Whoa — Gallup polling four days out

Sorry Gallup, this link goes to the Daily Kos. Mostly because it’s value-added if you hit the comments after checking out the extra content.

538 four days out

Holding steady for Obama.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

McCain is robocalling Arizona

A very desperate move by a very desperate campaign that doesn’t have the money to defend states like Arizona and still hope to compete in battleground states.

From the link:

John McCain and the Republican National Committee are now running robocalls attacking Obama as weak on terrorism — in McCain’s home state of Arizona, according to multiple readers from the state.

The call signals genuine worry about McCain’s home state at a time when several polls show the race to be much closer than expected there.

Do political media endorsements matter?

Maybe according to this Brown University study.

The release:

Endorsement Effects: Are Voters Influenced by Newspaper Picks?

More than 150 newspapers across the country have already endorsed Sen. JohnMcCain or Sen. Barack Obama for president, with more to come in the remaining days before the election. Do these endorsements really matter? In a new paper, economist Brian Knight investigates the effect of endorsements on voter decision making and finds that they are, in fact, influential.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] — Newspaper endorsements for presidential candidates can influence voting decisions, according to new research by two Brown University economists. In a working paper, Brian Knight and graduate student Chun Fang Chiang demonstrate that voters are more likely to support the recommended candidate following the publication of an endorsement, but any degree of influence depends on the credibility of the paper’s pick.

The researchers take into account that newspapers are potentially biased in favor of one of the candidates and found that voters rationally account for the credibility of any endorsement. That is, endorsements for the Democratic candidate from left-leaning newspapers are less influential than endorsements from neutral or right-leaning newspapers and likewise for endorsements for the Republican candidate. Knight said these results “suggest that voters are sophisticated and attempt to filter out any bias in media coverage of politics.”

To estimate the influence of newspaper endorsements, the researchers used individual-level data on voting intentions and newspaper readership in the months leading up to the 2000 and 2004 elections. They measured endorsement credibility based on the ideological leanings of newspapers, ownership, and reader preferences.

To provide a sense of the magnitude of endorsement effects, Knight and Chiang feature a data table that shows the estimated influence in the top 20 newspapers during the 2000 presidential campaign. They show the least credible endorsements were for Al Gore from The New York Times and for George W. Bush from the Dallas Morning News, which convinced less than 1 percent of their readers to switch allegiance to the endorsed candidate. By contrast, the endorsement with the largest effect came from the Chicago Sun Times, which was predicted to endorse Gore with a probability of 58 percent, but instead endorsed Bush. This endorsement convinced about 3 percent of readers to switch allegiance from Gore to Bush, according to the findings.  

These findings are particularly interesting considering the 2008 presidential endorsements. According to Editor and Publisher Magazine, more than 27 newspapers that backed George W. Bush in 2004 have endorsed Obama this year (as of Oct. 22), including large papers such as theDenver Post, Chicago Tribune and New York’s Daily News.

“We expect these Obama endorsements to be particularly influential since they have more credibility than endorsements from newspapers that always support the Democrat,” said Knight, associate professor of economics and public policy.

 A full copy of the paper is available to download (PDF) from Knight’s research web site. 

Less than a week out, here’s Charlie Cook’s analysis …

… of the presidential race. I guess technically this analysis is for one week out since he put it out on Tuesday.

From the link:

October 28, 2008
Since early September this race has shifted rather dramatically in Obama’s favor. As long as the focus is almost exclusively on the economy, this race is almost unwinnable for McCain. It would take a major external event, the proverbial October Surprise, to shift the spotlight to national security or some other subject that would allow McCain to highlight his strengths. At this stage, the most relevant question would seem to be: “How big will the train wreck be for the Republican Party up and down the ballot in November.” Obama currently has a 286 to 163 Electoral vote edge, with 89 Electoral votes in the Toss Up column. 270 are needed to win.

Less than one week 538 projections

Holding strong for Obama.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

McCain supporters stayin’ classy

Things are getting pretty ugly in GOP-land.

From the link:

After the rally, we witnessed a near-street riot involving the exiting McCain crowd and two Cuban-American Obama supporters. Tony Garcia, 63, and Raul Sorando, 31, were suddenly surrounded by an angry mob. There is a moment in a crowd when something goes from mere yelling to a feeling of danger, and that’s what we witnessed. As photographers and police raced to the scene, the crowd elevated from stable to fast-moving scrum, and the two men were surrounded on all sides as we raced to the circle.

The event maybe lasted a minute, two at the most, before police competently managed to hustle the two away from the scene and out of the danger zone. Only FiveThirtyEight tracked the two men down for comment, a quarter mile down the street.

“People were screaming ‘Terrorist!’ ‘Communist!’ ‘Socialist!'” Sorando said when we caught up with him. “I had a guy tell me he was gonna kill me.”

Asked what had precipitated the event, “We were just chanting ‘Obama!’ and holding our signs. That was it. And the crowd suddenly got crazy.”

Is Virginia the key ..

… to an Obama victory next Tuesday?

Possibly.

Here’s a bit from TPM Election Central:

Three new polls have now found Barack Obama with a clear and decisive lead in Virginia, bringing him one crucial step closer to a majority in the Electoral College:

• SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3.9% margin of error, not significantly different from a 53%-43% Obama lead from three weeks ago. Nine percent of respondents have already voted, giving Obama a 67%-30% majority, and he’s ahead 50%-44% among the remaining 91% of likely voters.

• Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. There is no other recent Zogby phone poll for comparison.

• Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 49%-46% Obama lead a month ago.

The early-vote number from SurveyUSA shows just what a hole John McCain is in. If he loses the early vote in a given state, he has to not only win the vote on Election Day, but win it by a large enough majority to overcome his early-vote deficit.

And here’s FiveThirtyEight:

Wish state might the McCain campaign really, really wish that they hadn’t insulted?

I’ll give you a hint. It’s not technically a state, but rather, a commonwealth.

Five separate polls of Virginia have been released within the past 48 hours. Zogby has Obama ahead by 7 points there, the Washington Post by 8, SurveyUSA by 9, Public Policy Polling also by 9, and Virgnia Commonwealth University by 11.

Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, is a bit more electorally potent than Colorado; Obama could afford to lose either New Hampshire or New Mexico if he won there (though not both), which is not true about the Rocky Mountain state. We are currently projecting Obama to win every John Kerry state, except New Hampshire, but plus Iowa, by double digits. If Obama wins all of those states plus Virginia, he’s at 268 electoral votes, meaning that any more electoral votes anywhere in the country would win him the election.

538 projections one week and day out

And as an added bonus, I’m throwing in their “super tracker.”

 

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

Palin “goin’ rogue”

Look for a lot more stories like this over the next while — up to election night and beyond. The GOP is fractured already and only getting worse.

From the Politico link:

Four Republicans close to Palin said she has decided increasingly to disregard the advice of the former Bush aides tasked to handle her, creating occasionally tense situations as she travels the country with them. Those Palin supporters, inside the campaign and out, said Palin blames her handlers for a botched rollout and a tarnished public image — even as others in McCain’s camp blame the pick of the relatively inexperienced Alaska governor, and her public performance, for McCain’s decline.

“She’s lost confidence in most of the people on the plane,” said a senior Republican who speaks to Palin, referring to her campaign jet. He said Palin had begun to “go rogue” in some of her public pronouncements and decisions.

“I think she’d like to go more rogue,” he said. 

That Pitt McCain volunteer mugging victim?

(Note: headline changed to reflect the correct city for the “event.” Sorry Philly, I’ll have a cheesesteak in penance.)

Not so much.

From the Daily Dish link:

McCain Spokesman Implicated In Mugger Hoax

<!– –>And Palin called Todd:

John Verrilli, the news director for KDKA in Pittsburgh, told TPM Election Central that McCain’s Pennsylvania campaign communications director gave one of his reporters a detailed version of the attack that included a claim that the alleged attacker said, “You’re with the McCain campaign? I’m going to teach you a lesson.”

Verrilli also told TPM that the McCain spokesperson had claimed that the “B” stood for Barack.

McCain also called the hoax-merchant. Is this the kind of judgment you want in a president?

Here’s another report on the sick, false hate-crime hoax.

And here’s TPM Election Central’s report:

Report: McCain Volunteer Who Claimed “Carved B” Attack Confesses To Making Up Story

By Greg Sargent – October 24, 2008, 1:32PM

Wow. By now you’ve all heard about Ashley Todd, the 20-year-old McCain volunteer who claimed that she was assaulted in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night by an attacker who scratched a “B” in her cheek after learning that she was for McCain.

The story was flacked madly last night by Drudge, even though few if any details had been established or independently confirmed.

Well, take a look at this banner headline, from Pittsburgh’s KDKA:

A Pittsburgh police commander says a volunteer for the McCain campaign who reported being robbed and attacked near a bank ATM in Bloomfield has confessed to making up the story. Police say charges will be filed. More details to follow.

More soon.

Late Update: KDKA’s full story has now been posted. It’s based on anonymous sources. So it’s still unclear what the story is. Stay tuned.

Late Late Update: It’s worth keeping in mind what Fox News executive vice president John Moody had to say about what this would mean if this story proved a hoax:

“If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain’s quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.”

Worth keeping an eye on Fox’s coverage of the latest turn in the story.

Late Late Late Update: Police are set to hold a press conference to discuss the news, reports the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Latest Update: There are now conflicting reports on whether Todd confessed or police simply concluded the mugging story was a hoax.

Later Than Latest Update: Some extraordinary new details about her confession from the AP:

Ashley Todd, 20-year-old college student from College Station, Texas, admitted Friday that the story was false and was being charged with making a false report to police, said Maurita Bryant, the assistant chief of the police department’s investigations division. Police doubted her story from the start, Bryant said.Todd, who is white, told police she was attacked by a 6-foot-4 black man Wednesday night.

She now can’t explain why she invented the story, Bryant said. Todd also told police she believes she cut the backward “B” onto her own cheek, but did not provide an explanation of how or why, Bryant said.

Update 10/25 — Here’s the latest from TPM Election Central, including a little brushback against Team McCain’s assertion their spokesman in Pennsylvania is not a race baiter. Pretty thin gruel if you ask me.

From the link:

A spokesperson for McCain’s national campaign is pushing back on our story yesterday reporting that McCain’s Pennsylvania communications director was giving reporters an incendiary version of the attack hoax story before the facts were in.

But Keith Olbermann does a nice job of skewering the push-back. From the Countdown transcript:

Tonight, McCain`s spokesman, Brian Rogers, denied the campaign gave out those quotes, telling COUNTDOWN, they came from the police and were attributed to the McCain camp because of sloppy reporting.An account that doesn’t explain why two television stations both quoted the McCain campaign, or the fact that one of them, KDKA Pittsburgh specifically followed the McCain quotes with the line, quote, “Police, however, have not confirmed that.”

And tonight, COUNTDOWN asked the reporter from the other station, WPXI to check his notes. He says he got those quotes first, 4:08 p.m. yesterday from McCain`s Pennsylvania communications director.

Gallup’s numbers a week-and-a-half out

Remain strong for Obama.

From the link:

Barack Obama maintains a statistically significant lead over John McCain among likely voters interviewed Tuesday through Thursday as part of the Gallup Poll Daily tracking program, with a 51% to 44% margin using an “expanded” model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters, and a 50% to 45% margin using the “traditional” model Gallup has employed in past elections.

These results are based on Oct. 21-23 polling. The precise numbers vary slightly from day to day, as would be expected given normal sampling considerations and the high-visibility campaign currents that are swirling around voters in the closing days of the campaign. Obama’s share of the vote has been within a very narrow range of 49% to 51% among the traditional likely voter group over the last two weeks, and within a 50% to 53% range among the expanded likely voter group. There has been only slightly more fluidity in McCain’s share, ranging from 44% to 47% among traditional likely voters, and 42% to 46% among the expanded group. These slight shifts in estimates of each candidate’s share are minimal. Nothing so far represents a major change in the structure of the race, and the big picture conclusion is that Obama is maintaining his lead over McCain with less than two weeks to go before Election Day.

If you’re catching this page from a web search for Gallup polling and have yet to check out FiveThirtyEight.com, I heartily suggest you do so. The polls are statistically crunched (by Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus fame) every day, plus he runs 10,000 simulated electoral results to provide projections for the presidential and Senate races.

So the circular firing squad begins apace

The game’s not over and the GOP is already taking shots from within. Expect this to get worse over the next few weeks regardless how the election turns out.

From the link:

The blame game is beginning among Republicans, even as Sen. John McCain struggles to catch up in the polls in the campaign’s final days, report a trio of top Politico writers. Jonathan Martin, Mike Allen, John F. Harris write: “With despair rising even among many of John McCain’s own advisors, influential Republicans inside and outside his campaign are engaged in an intense round of blame-casting and rear-covering—-much of it virtually conceding that an Election Day rout is likely.” McCain himself participated in an interview with the Washington Times, complaining about the problems created by the Bush administration. Beyond that, “the candidate’s strategists in recent days have become increasingly vocal in interviews and conference calls about what they call unfair news media coverage and Barack Obama’s wide financial advantage — both complaints laying down a post-election storyline for why their own efforts proved ineffectual…Top Republican officials have let it be known they are distressed about McCain’s organization.” And there’s a debate about why McCain chose a “reform” rather than an “experience” message.

Update — Here’s more on the subject — he even uses the phrase, “circular firing squad” in the intro — from Marc Ambinder.

Palin’s makeup artist …

… was the highest paid campaign team member over a two-week period. I didn’t blog about the $150K clothes budget from the RNC because I thought it was non-story in the campaigning sense. It was a story in the sense the image crafted and nurtured for Palin was “one of the people.”

Over one hundred thousand dollars in designer clothes nullify that image. Of course, she hasn’t been “one of the people.” even in Alaska, for a very long time. Any politician working at the state level or higher is far, far from the people.

This makeup artist story is completely different in that it exposes a fundamental area of focus in the McCain campaign as it slowly circles the drain.

Is the most money going into deep-drilling polling trying to uncover a strategy for every last electoral vote? No. How about for an advertising professional to craft a last-gasp ad series to counteract the failing ad buys? Nope. Well, maybe just go complete slime and hire high-end voice talent for misleading robocalls, maybe over pay but make sure the recipients get at least of tinge of recognition when they hear that recorded voice. No way.

The most money spent on any individual in the campaign right now, less than two weeks out? Amy Strozzi, Palin’s personal makeup artist.

From the link:

Who was the highest paid individual in Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign during the first half of October as it headed down the homestretch?

Not Randy Scheunemann, Mr. McCain’s chief foreign policy adviser; not Nicolle Wallace, his senior communications staffer. It was Amy Strozzi, who was identified by the Washington Post this week as Gov. Sarah Palin’s traveling makeup artist, according to a new filing with the Federal Election Commission on Thursday night.

Ms. Strozzi, who was nominated for an Emmy award for her makeup work on the television show “So You Think You Can Dance?”, was paid $22,800 for the first two weeks of October alone, according to the records. The campaign categorized Ms. Strozzi’s payment as “Personnel Svc/Equipment.”

In addition, Angela Lew, who is Ms. Palin’s traveling hair stylist, got $10,000 for “Communications Consulting” in the first half of October. Ms. Lew’s address listed in F.E.C. records traces to an Angela M. Lew in Thousands Oaks, Calif., which matches with a license issued by the California Board of Barbering and Cosmetology. The board said Ms. Lew works at a salon called Hair Grove in Westlake Village, Calif.

Final 12 days 538 projection

Obama’s highest numbers ever after a group of very strong battleground state polls.

Here’s the break down on the numbers behind this group of projections.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

The hinge is officially off the box

Man, If I were McCain at this point I’d just say, “Thanks, but no thanks. No more help please.”

Check out this bit from James Pinkerton. No it’s not the Onion and no this isn’t meant as satire.

On my best days doing political satire for Detour magazine in the late-80s/early 90s I don’t think I could’ve touched this run of crazy. And I once did a “voodoo economics” bit on H.W. involving zombie powder and witch doctors.

From the cringe-worthy link:

Could Lucifer play a role in this presidential election? It may sound crazy, but one of the candidates in this race has publicly praised, even emulated, a writer-activist who himself paid tribute to Lucifer.  That’s right, Lucifer, also known as the Devil, Satan, Beelzebub—you get the idea.

Do you think that admiring a Lucifer-admirer would make a difference to some voters?

If you’ve never heard of this true fact—and most Americans obviously haven’t—well, that might help to explain why John McCain is behind in the polls.

Presidential pick tied to auto preference?

From the odd election-year-research department of this blog, here’s one of the more strange that’s crossed the inbox these last couple of horse race weeks.

The release:

Presidential Candidate Preference Related to Car-Owner Brands, Segments, According to kbb.com Market Research

Full-Size Truck Owners Favor McCain, While Wagon Owners Look to Obama

IRVINE, Calif., Oct. 23 /PRNewswire/ — According to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com Marketing Research, the car brand and segment owned by voters is related to their preference in presidential candidates.  Senator John McCain (R-AZ) rates high among domestic and luxury owners.  Among the domestic brands, owners of GMC (61 percent), Chevrolet (60 percent), Buick and Dodge (each at 58 percent), as well as Ford (57 percent) vehicles are the highest in favor of McCain.  In the luxury vehicle segment, McCain leads among Lexus, BMW, and Lincoln owners at 52 percent each.

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) leads McCain among owners of import vehicles with the highest ratings for MINI (70 percent), Subaru (61 percent), and Saab (59 percent).  Fifty percent of Honda owners plan on voting for Obama, ten points higher than McCain.

In addition, vehicle segments have a direct correlation to car-owners’ preferred presidential candidates.  McCain receives the highest support from full-size truck (66 percent), full-size SUV (61 percent) and luxury SUV (61 percent) owners.  Obama leads McCain among luxury station wagon (59 percent), station wagon and sport wagon (55 percent), hatchback (52 percent) and luxury crossover vehicle (52 percent) owners.  Among owners of hybrid vehicles, Obama leads with 48 percent of the preferences, nine points more than McCain.

The connection between car ownership and Presidential candidates can also be seen in both the Democratic and Republican campaigns.  Republican rallies often promote the idea of “drill, baby, drill,” which may link gas-guzzling truck and SUV owners to McCain.  On the other hand, Obama has stressed the importance of putting more money toward wind, solar, and other alternative forms of energy, which may relate to his popularity among hybrid owners.

“McCain’s appeal among owners of domestics and large trucks/SUVs is right in line with where we see a majority of those vehicles selling – in the traditionally Republican ‘red’ states,” said Rick Wainschel, senior vice president of marketing and analytics for Kelley Blue Book and kbb.com.  “With import and hybrid owners typically favoring Obama, this also aligns with strong sales of these types of vehicles in predominately Democratic ‘blue’ states.”

Kelley Blue Book Marketing Research also conducted this survey for the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections, and accurately predicted the results.  Eight years ago, the survey predicted George W. Bush would take the lead over Al Gore.  In 2004, the results revealed President Bush would win over Senator John Kerry.

“Car ownership says a lot about a person, and can even be an indicator who they are likely to vote for,” added Wainschel. “If consumers are concerned about the environment, they may choose a more eco-friendly vehicle, like a hybrid, and vote for the candidate with a favorable stance on energy.  Consumers’ values impact their purchasing decisions and reflect their preferences in political leaders.”

The latest study from Kelley Blue Book Marketing Research was conducted September 19 through October 8, 2008, on Kelley Blue Book’s kbb.com among 11,142 vehicle owners planning to vote in the upcoming 2008 United States Presidential election.

About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)

Since 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource(R), has provided vehicle buyers and sellers with the new and used vehicle information they need to accomplish their goals with confidence. The company’s top-rated Web site, www.kbb.com, provides the most up-to-date pricing and values, including the New Car Blue Book(R) Value, which reveals what people actually are paying for new cars. The company also reports vehicle pricing and values via products and services, including software products and the famous Blue Book(R) Official Guide. Kbb.com is rated the No. 1 automotive information Web site among both new and used vehicle shoppers, and half of online vehicle shoppers visit kbb.com.  Kbb.com is a leading provider of new car prices, car reviews and news, used car blue book values, auto classifieds and car dealer locations. No other medium reaches more in-market vehicle shoppers than kbb.com.

 
Source: Kelley Blue Book
Web Site:  http://www.kbb.com/

Charlie Cook breaks down …

… the dwindling hopes for McCain and the GOP.

From the link:

At this point it would be difficult to see Republican losses in the Senate and House to be fewer than seven and 20 respectively. A very challenging situation going into September turned into a meltdown last month, the most dire predictions for the GOP early on became the most likely outcome.

The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over, it’s only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn’t that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one. First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win. Sure, we have seen come-from-behind victories, but they didn’t come back this far this late.

Second, early voting has made comebacks harder and would tend to diminish the impact of the kind of late-breaking development that might save McCain’s candidacy. With as many as one-third of voters likely to cast their ballot before Election Day, every day more are cast and the campaign is effectively over for them. The longer Obama has this kind of lead and the more votes are cast early, the more voters are out of the pool for McCain.

One word — ouch.

Is McCain giving up

It’s really starting to look that way given the states he’s already conceding based on where his dollars are going.

From the link:

Note that it’s not just Colorado on the chopping block, but also Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Michigan was conceded some weeks ago. Iowa and New Mexico are on life support. Essentially, McCain seems to be giving up on any path to victory that does not involve Pennsylvania — a state that we presently project Barack Obama to win by 9.7 points.

Calling all spiritual warriers

Wow. Just wow.

This is so unbelievably ridiculous that I’m not sure where to start. All I can say is if you honestly believe in this level of claptrap, I personally mourn your utter lack of critical thought.

From the link:

THIS IS EXTREMELY SERIOUS.

Minutes ago I spoke with friend Dr. Norman G. Marvin, M.D. and he is so concerned at what he has learned about Barack Obama’s family in Kenya that he is calling a special prayer meeting in his home to pray against the witchcraft curses attempted by them against John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Dr. Marvin sent me the below e-mail from Flo Ellers.  Flo is credentialed with the International Fellowship of Ministries which is based in Washington State.  She is also a member of EndTime Handmaidens and Servants of Jasper, Arkansas.

IF YOU KNOW HOW TO DO SPIRITUAL WARFARE, PLEASE PRAY TODAY AND CONTINUALLY THAT ALL SUCH CURSES BE BROKEN AND SATAN’S PLAN FOR AMERICA BE DEFEATED, IN JESUS’ NAME.  PRAY AND COVER MCCAIN AND PALIN WITH THE BLOOD OF CHRIST.  IF YOU DO NOT KNOW HOW TO DO SPIRITUAL WARFARE, IT IS TIME YOU LEARN!!!

Jim

Teh dumb and deluded is strong with this one.

538 projections two weeks out

Only two more weeks in the horse race. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s projection:

Obama’s been over 90% for quite a while now. If you’d like more background on FiveThirtyEight’s excellent statistics work, hit this link.

From the link:

Tracking Poll Primer

Now that there are fully eight distinct national tracking polls, I thought I’d take the time to give you my Cliff’s Notes assessment of each one. The polls are arranged in the order in which they typically appear throughout the day — as you may have discovered, you can get your tracking poll fix quite literally morning, noon and night.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.