David Kirkpatrick

September 9, 2010

Latest Beige Book outlook not so bright

Filed under: Business, Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 11:15 am

The Great Recession, the near-depression, economic downturn — whatever you want to label the economy of the last years with, it all comes down to it’s not good, hasn’t really gotten appreciably better for Main Street and doesn’t really seem like tangible recovery is even visible on the horizon. So it’s another fall of keeping the chin up and tightening the belt a little bit more once again.

From the link:

The mixed picture is in line with government data released last month that showed U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, was much weaker in the second quarter than previously estimated.

The nation’s GDP was revised sharply lower to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the three months ending in June. The initial reading had been for a 2.4% growth rate in the period.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged in a speech late last month that the U.S. economic recovery has lost considerable steam. But he said the central bank is prepared to use “unconventional measures” to boost the economy if the outlook were to “deteriorate significantly.”

In its Aug. 10 policy statement, the Fed announced plans last month to begin reinvesting proceeds from securities in its $2 trillion portfolio in to U.S. Treasurys. The central bank had bought billions worth of government debt two years ago to keep interest rates low on home and other consumer loans. But minuets from the August meeting subsequently showed that Fed officials were unusually divided over the policy.

July 15, 2010

Per Fed, economic recovery slowing

Filed under: Business, Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:40 pm

This is very easy news to believe. Things are still pretty rough out there.

From the link:

Federal Reserve policymakers, acknowledging a slowing in the economic recovery at their meeting in late June, began to consider the possibility of providing additional stimulus if growth fell sharply — a possibility that has become all the more real as signs of weakness have piled up.

July 16, 2009

GDP growth of four percent over eighteen months?

Filed under: Business — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 3:40 pm

That number is defended in a Forbes op-ed by Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein. Hit this link for the case as it’s been laid out. Plausible, yes. Probable, I’d say no.

From the link:

To be more precise, we are forecasting that real gross domestic product (GDP) grows at a 3.5% rate in the second half of 2009 and 4.5% next year. But, in all truth, we are much more confident about the overall 4%-plus figure for the full 18-month period than about the exact growth rate for any particular quarter. For example, if auto production ramps back up quickly enough in the next couple months, some of the extra growth set for 2010 might come late this year instead.