Obama’s popularity numbers

Nate Silver at 538 takes on an od-ed from the Wall Street Journal today. Looks like the WSJ conclusion isn’t borne out by the actual numbers.

From the link:

This is the first paragraph of a commentary by Doug Schoen and Scott Rasmussen in today’s Wall Street Journal:

It is simply wrong for commentators to continue to focus on President Barack Obama’s high levels of popularity, and to conclude that these are indicative of high levels of public confidence in the work of his administration. Indeed, a detailed look at recent survey data shows that the opposite is most likely true. The American people are coming to express increasingly significant doubts about his initiatives, and most likely support a different agenda and different policies from those that the Obama administration has advanced.

Scott is an extremely fair-minded guy and someone whom we have partnered with in the past. I don’t know Doug Schoen, other than that he’s Mark Penn’s business partner. In any event, I think their lede is just wrong. Barack Obama’s Gallup approval ratings, as of this afternoon, are 62 percent approve and 27 percent disapprove. Those are pretty good scores. The average of all Gallup approval ratings taken for all Presidents, going all the way back to 1937, is 54.9 percent approve and 35.2 percent disapprove; Obama is about 8 points ahead of those numbers on either side. He is notably more popular than an American president usually is, and it would therefore stand to reason that he has proportionately more power than average to advance his agenda. It is not wrong for commentators to notate this fact.

Early presidential polling

Now that Clinton is offically out of the race Obama stretches his national lead over McCain.

From the link:

Barack Obama is enjoying a modest bump in support following Hillary Clinton’s exit from the presidential race. The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds Obama leading Republican John McCain, 48% to 42%, among registered voters nationwide.

Obama has consistently held a lead of five to seven percentage points each night since it was reported that Hillary Clinton intended to suspend her campaign. These represent Obama’s strongest showing versus McCain to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of registered voters’ presidential election preferences. For much of the time since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in mid-March, McCain and Obama have been in a statistical dead heat. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

Here’s some polling analysis from the Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder:

Here’s the start of that Obama bump, per Gallup. It ain’t gonna be 15 points by the time of the convention, but there are some in McCain’s world who legitimately believe that McCain will NEVER be ahead in the popular vote (but will still win the election.)

 

Obama’s lead is up to 10 points

The gap widens …

And according to this Wall Street Journal article, leading Democrats are beginning to line up behind Obama to further pressure Clinton to end her quixotic quest. Upcoming endorsements expected for Obama include Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and all seven of North Carolina’s House members before that election.

(Update on North Carolina: Maybe not on that group endorsement.)

From the first link:

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama has extended his lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally to 52% to 42%, the third consecutive Gallup Poll Daily trackingreport in which he has held a statistically significant lead, and Obama’s largest lead of the year so far.

Bob Casey endorses Obama

Bob Casey, a senator from Pennsylvania, has endorsed Obama. Clinton is expected to win Pennsylvania by a very wide (read — around 20%) margin, and her beyond slim hopes rest on that outcome.

If Obama keeps that victory within single digits she’s done. If he were to win Penn, she would pretty much have to drop out of the race. At this point I’m not sure she’d do it, but either scenario is ballgame for Obama. Clinton’s Bosnia “misstatement” has caused her much more damage than it seemed at first blush.

In related news, the kitchen sink/toilet bowl strategy is not working in the least. According to Gallup’s national poll, on March 23 they were basically in a statistical dead heat at around 47%. Obama’s been steadily trending upwards since then and leads 50-42 in the latest poll. (Hit this link for a Daily Dish post and the rolling poll.)

From the first link:

In a surprise move, Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania has endorsed Senator Barack Obama in advance of the April 22 Democratic primary. Mr. Casey had said he would remain neutral in the race in part because he wanted to help broker a reconciliation between Mr. Obama and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton afterward.

“I believe in my heart that there is one person who’s uniquely qualified to lead us in that new direction and that is Barack Obama.” Mr. Casey said during a rally in Pittsburgh Friday.

“I really believe that in a time of danger around the world and in division here at home, Barack Obama can lead us, he can heal us, he can help rebuild America,” he said.

Mr. Casey is going against the grain in his state, where polls show Mrs. Clinton ahead by at least 12 percentage points and where she has the endorsement of most of the state’s major Democratic figures.

Gallup polling from 1/30-2/1/08

Here’s the national numbers from Gallup for the end of the week before Tsunami Tuesday.

Key figures:

Dems — Clinton 48%, Obama 41%; with Clinton getting a four point bounce the last day of the poll.

Reps — McCain 44%, Romney 24%, Huckabee 16%; McCain gets a five point bounce the last day, Romney holds steady and Huckabee loses a point. Longer trend lines show both Romney and Huckabee staying fairly even and McCain strongly rising beginning January 27.