David Kirkpatrick

September 26, 2009

Is one pollster cooking the books?

Filed under: Politics, Science — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:31 pm

Maybe. This would rock the polling industry and how it gets its results published if true. Think about it, groups pay for polls all the time and the media dutifully reports those results comparing them to other results. Those polls might even get aggregated into trend lines at places like Pollster.com.

Statistician Nate Silver of 538 has long had issues with polls from Strategic Vision because they wouldn’t release their methodology, which is pretty much standard within the industry, and now he’s found very possible evidence the company is purely creating polling results out of whole cloth.

Stats aren’t very sexy, and polling is, as they say, an inexact science, but this allegation is very serious and Silver wouldn’t put his budding punditry on the line if he weren’t pretty sure of it’s veracity.

From the second link:

I posed that question largely as a hypothetical yesterday. But today, I pose it much more literally. Certain statistical properties of the results reported by Strategic Vision, LLC suggest, perhaps strongly, the possibility of fraud, although they certainly do not prove it and further investigation will be required.

The specific evidence in question is as follows. I looked at all polling results reported by Strategic Vision LLC since the beginning of 2005; results from 2008 onward are available at their website; other polls were recovered through archive.org. This is a lot of data — well over 100 polls, each of which asked an average of about 15-20 questions.

Like I said, very serious allegations. If you are interested in the gritty details, here’s a link to the original post Silver alluded to in the excerpt, and a follow-up post.

From the “follow-up post” link above:

Bottom line: It is highly unlikely, in my opinion, that the distribution of the results from the Strategic Vision polls are reflective of any sort of ordinary and organic, mathematical process.

That does not necessarily mean that they simply made these numbers up.

March 13, 2009

Obama’s popularity numbers

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:38 pm

Nate Silver at 538 takes on an od-ed from the Wall Street Journal today. Looks like the WSJ conclusion isn’t borne out by the actual numbers.

From the link:

This is the first paragraph of a commentary by Doug Schoen and Scott Rasmussen in today’s Wall Street Journal:

It is simply wrong for commentators to continue to focus on President Barack Obama’s high levels of popularity, and to conclude that these are indicative of high levels of public confidence in the work of his administration. Indeed, a detailed look at recent survey data shows that the opposite is most likely true. The American people are coming to express increasingly significant doubts about his initiatives, and most likely support a different agenda and different policies from those that the Obama administration has advanced.

Scott is an extremely fair-minded guy and someone whom we have partnered with in the past. I don’t know Doug Schoen, other than that he’s Mark Penn’s business partner. In any event, I think their lede is just wrong. Barack Obama’s Gallup approval ratings, as of this afternoon, are 62 percent approve and 27 percent disapprove. Those are pretty good scores. The average of all Gallup approval ratings taken for all Presidents, going all the way back to 1937, is 54.9 percent approve and 35.2 percent disapprove; Obama is about 8 points ahead of those numbers on either side. He is notably more popular than an American president usually is, and it would therefore stand to reason that he has proportionately more power than average to advance his agenda. It is not wrong for commentators to notate this fact.

February 6, 2009

Don’t do it Kay Bailey

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 10:29 pm

This 538 post is actually about Palin already endorsing the pathetic Rick Perry as Texas governor in 2010, but it touches on another point — that Kay Bailey Hutchison may leave the Senate to run for the seat.

Nate Silver points out Kay Bailey has a significant “what-if” polling lead over Perry. Not surprising since Perry is ineffectual and toadying in a very weak office. For those who don’t know Texas politics, the power rests in the lieutenant governor’s office. The governor is something of a cheerleading figurehead with some actual power and responsibility.

The only reason I could ever see Hutchison covet the office would be as a springboard to the White House. She’s a very effective senator and I’d hate to see the state lose that voice and experience in D.C. Especially since junior senator is the moronic John Cornyn. I shudder to think of “Big, Bad John” as a senior senator.

I also don’t see Hutchison with any hope of getting to Pennsylvania Avenue on the heels of Bush’s eight years of shame and fail.

Palin’s obviously trying to knock a real threat as the female voice of the GOP. It’s no contest, really. Hutchison is intelligent with a strong sense of the political game. Palin is, well Palin — glasses, boobs, hair, dipshit aphorisms, no grasp of policy and absolutely no clue.

Palin’s backing the wrong horse in this race if Hutchison does indeed run. But Kay Bailey, please, please stay in the Senate. The State of Texas needs you. Needs you in D.C., not Austin.

From the link:

The problem is that Rick Perry isn’t especially likely to be Texas’s governor in 2012. Rather, Hutchison is. A Texas Lyceum(.pdf) poll conducted in June showed Hutchison with a 36-22 lead over Perry among prospective Republican primary voters. Hutchison also polled the race herself, and — the usual caveats about internal polls applying — gave herself a 55-31 lead over Perry. And Perry’s approval ratings are well below par, with 42 percent of Texans saying he’s doing a good job as governor and 58 percent a poor one.

January 6, 2009

Nate Silver fisks the WSJ editorial board

Filed under: Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:54 am

And does an epic takedown.

FiveThirtyEight is becoming a post-election must read for political junkies. It absolutely was during the election for the incredibly prescient projections on the elections this year.

Now that the election is done they’re cleaning up the loose ends — such as the Coleman/Franken recount in Minnesota, and as it happens the subject of the fisked op-ed –and branching out into politics beyond polling, statistics and elections.

Naturally, this sort of analysis betrays the pretty strong lean to the left, but whatever your personal leanings, not reading this for ideological reasons is silly. These guys are just doing great work right now.

From the first link:

Mr. Franken started the recount 215 votes behind Senator Coleman, but he now claims a 225-vote lead and suddenly the man who was insisting on “counting every vote” wants to shut the process down. He’s getting help from Mr. Ritchie and his four fellow Canvassing Board members, who have delivered inconsistent rulings and are ignoring glaring problems with the tallies.

Actually, Coleman is having far more trouble with the Minnesota Supreme Court, which generally has a conservative reputation, than he is with the Canvassing Board. They’re the ones who rejected his petition on duplicate ballots, and they’re the ones who rejected his notion of wanting to tack on additional ballots to the absentee ballot counting.

Under Minnesota law, election officials are required to make a duplicate ballot if the original is damaged during Election Night counting. Officials are supposed to mark these as “duplicate” and segregate the original ballots. But it appears some officials may have failed to mark ballots as duplicates, which are now being counted in addition to the originals. This helps explain why more than 25 precincts now have more ballots than voters who signed in to vote. By some estimates this double counting has yielded Mr. Franken an additional 80 to 100 votes.

There are 25 precincts with more ballots than voters? I’m not sure this is actually true. There were certain precincts with more votes counted during the recount than there were on Election Night — which is not surprising, considering that the whole purpose of a hand recount is to find votes that the machine scanners missed the first time around. I have not seen any evidence, on the other hand, that there are precincts with more votes than voters as recorded on sign-in sheets. And the Coleman campaign evidently hasn’t either, or it presumably would have presented it to the Court, which rejected its petition for lack of evidence.

Also, note the weasel-wordy phrase “by some estimates”, which translates as “by the Coleman campaign’s estimate”. There is no intrinsic reason why Franken ballots are more likely to be duplicated than Coleman ballots, especially when one significant source of duplicate ballots is military absentees, a group that presumably favors the Republicans. Coleman, indeed, only became interested in the issue of duplicates once he fell behind in the recount and needed some way to extend his clock. Before then, his lead attorney had sent an e-mail to Franken which said that challenges on the issue of duplicate ballots were “groundless and frivolous”.

December 19, 2008

Looks like Al Franken will win Minnesota

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:38 pm

When your strategy during the entire recount process is little more than weak challenges and constant court petitions, I’d say the goose has been cooked for a long time and everyone knows it.

From the 538 link:

The Coleman campaign is back to court, this time filing a petition with the Minnesota Supreme Court that seeks to prevent Minnesota’s Canvassing Board from certifying the results of its recount until an issue with what it claims to be duplicate ballots is resolved. In addition, Coleman requests that the court mandate that the individual precincts double-check for potential duplicate ballots in conjunction with their court-ordered review of rejected absentee ballots, which is set to proceed between now and December 31.

December 16, 2008

Democratic domination in the House

Interesting analysis from Nate Silver at 538.

From the link:

Even in districts where the Republicans did compete, moreover, they were often not truly competitive. The Democrats had 126 districts that they won by 40 points or more (including races that they won uncontested); these are what I call Democrat-Dominant Districts (DDD’s). These districts represent approximately half of the Democratic seats in the House, and nearly 30 percent of the House in its entirety. By contrast, the Republicans had only had 30 districts that they won by 40 or more points, of which 22 are in the South.

What characteristics did the DDD’s hold in common? In general, they were more urban, younger and poorer (although not any less educated) than the country as whole, and contained a significantly higher share of minorities. But, with 126 such districts, there was quite a bit of room for diversity between them. Basically, the Republicans aren’t competitive virtually anywhere on the Eastern Seaboard north of Washington, D.C., and virtually anywhere on the Pacific Coast north of Monterey. They aren’t competitive in virtually any dense urban center, or in virtually any majority-minority district (such as the black belt in the South or Hispanic-majority districts in South Texas). Finally, there are a dozen or so districts where Republicans are virtually nonexistant because of the presence of a large College or University. Collectively, that adds up to a lot of districts — almost a third of the country.

Conversely, the Democrats have very few districts in which they can’t play some angle or another. Nearly all of the Republican-dominated districts fit into a particular template: white, Southern, rural or exurban, lower-middle class (but not usually impoverished), low-mobility, with poorly-diversified economies reliant on traditional sectors like manufacturing or agriculture. There are only a couple dozen such districts throughout the country

December 6, 2008

Nate Silver on the Dole Institute’s post-mortem

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:28 pm

The Dole Institute of Politics held it’s second post election conference this Thursday and Friday to take stock of the recent election.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver ran a post with six key takeaways from the get-together.

Here’s a sample of where the GOP-centric crowd sees the current Republican Party right now:

From the second link:

3. The Republican bench is relatively inadequate at the present time in terms of candidates for national office.
3a. On the other hand, the 2012 Presidential cycle is already being looked at as something of a lost cause. Some of the stronger candidates — both known and unknown — might want to wait until 2016 to run.
3b. In the long-term, the future of the party probably lies in governor’s offices. If the Republicans are smart, this may be their major focus in 2010-12, as opposed to the Congress and even perhaps the Presidency.

4. Sarah Palin is, for the time being, the public face of the Republican Party.
4a. This is not necessarily a good thing for the Republican Party.

November 18, 2008

Nate Silver opines on today’s media and Lee Atwater

Filed under: Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:24 pm

Insightful post from Nate Silver on today’s mediaand an added bit on Lee Atwater operating in today’s blogospherized political environment.

I’m really happy to see Nate and Sean at FiveThirtyEight keeping up analysis of the political scene. For anyone who doesn’t know, Nate is a statistician for Baseball Prospectus and brought rock-and-roll number cruching skills to this year’s election. And pretty much nailed the results. Probably has changed the world of political polling and projections forever, because partisan hacks just get exposed in his model.

He became something of a media darling with multiple television appearances as the site grew in traffic. It was a point of wonder what would happen at FiveThirtyEight once the election was over and there were no projections in the near future. Looks like, to all our benefit, those guys are going to sort through their thoughts and apply lessons learned to share some inside dope with the blogosphere. And I think that’s great. I love the site and hope it only continues to grow.

From the first link:

CBS’s underlying problem — and the commonality between the three items that I described above — is the arbitrary and largely ineffectual nature of the fact-checking process employed by the mainstream media. I have written for perhaps a dozen major publications over the span of my career, and the one with the most thorough fact-checking process is by some margin Sports Illustrated. Although this is an indication of the respect with which SI accords its brand, it does not speak so well of the mainstream political media that you are more likely to see an unverified claim repeated on the evening news than you are to see in the pages of your favorite sports periodical.

One of the questions triggered by the Frontlineprogram is what would have happened if Atwater were still alive today; might he have had more success in undermining Barack Obama than Steve Schmidt apparently did? My answer is very probably not, because the blogosphere serves as the fact-checkers that the mainstream media is too negligent to employ. On the contrary, I think that Mr. Atwater would have been smart enough to realize that he’d be eaten alive by Daily Kosand Media Matters and Keith Olbermann, and would be thoroughly enjoying himself in retirement playing in a blues band in South Carolina somewhere.

November 5, 2008

FiveThirtyEight.com rocked

Filed under: et.al., Politics — Tags: , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:32 am

Not complete, but look at these comparisans from 538:

FiveThirtyEight projected
FiveThirtyEight projected

 

Called on election night
Called on election night

 

Fill-the-gaps later.

Stats can rock.

November 4, 2008

Results are coming in …

Filed under: Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 5:53 pm

… and I’m going to try very, very hard to not live blog. Medical crisis in the household has been taken care of, so I’m going to be all over the results and numbers.

It’ll be interesting to see who calls it for Obama first. Of course Drudge practically has already based on his exit polling “numbers.” If somehow McCain wins this thing — basically impossible if the FiveThirtyEight gang aren’t completely lost in space — the United States better buckle down for some serious, society-wrecking riots. The black community and left wing have all but been promised with a kiss an Obama win in the media today.

Election day 538 projection

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:49 am

Here’s the final FiveThirtyEight projection before the polls open here in a few hours.

Did much lighter blogging yesterday (read: none) because of a medical emergency, and possibly might not be able to do much today.

Update — Actually here’s the absolute final projection taking into account the straggler polls. Even worse news for McCain. And thanks to the gang at FiveThirtyEight for the incredible number crunching over this electoral season. They may have created a sea-change in political polling. An often seamy and slanted part of the game.

November 2, 2008

Homestretch notes

Filed under: Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:28 pm

Okay, here we are in the homestretch of this year’s presidential horserace. I’m not going to go nuts with posts — well, I might but I don’t expect to. I will post on anything that seems particularly significant and I’ll run 538’s projections tomorrow evening before the polling stations open Tuesday morning.

And, of course, if at all possible I’ll be doing some blogging Tuesday night as the polls close and results start coming in. However things go, it should be a fun night.

November 1, 2008

Could Obama win Georgia?

The guys at FiveThirtyEight think it’s a long shot, but absolutely possible. That would be unbelievable.

From the link:

What To Watch For

It’s entirely possible Georgia will give the Democratic Party its 60th Senate seat on Election Night, if Jim Martin beats Saxby Chambliss. All the House seats are pretty much safe, with incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall in central Georgia facing the toughest re-election in Georgia’s Republican-gerrymandered districts. Republicans are on defense all across the board again this cycle, so if Marshall survived in 2006, he should pull it off again in 2008. If the polls close in the eastern time zone and the nets can’t call Georgia for John McCain because it’s “too close to call,” we’ll all know who the next President-Elect will be.

And here’s the first November projection:

As always, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 31, 2008

538 four days out

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:19 pm

Holding steady for Obama.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 29, 2008

Less than one week 538 projections

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:42 pm

Holding strong for Obama.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

McCain supporters stayin’ classy

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:40 pm

Things are getting pretty ugly in GOP-land.

From the link:

After the rally, we witnessed a near-street riot involving the exiting McCain crowd and two Cuban-American Obama supporters. Tony Garcia, 63, and Raul Sorando, 31, were suddenly surrounded by an angry mob. There is a moment in a crowd when something goes from mere yelling to a feeling of danger, and that’s what we witnessed. As photographers and police raced to the scene, the crowd elevated from stable to fast-moving scrum, and the two men were surrounded on all sides as we raced to the circle.

The event maybe lasted a minute, two at the most, before police competently managed to hustle the two away from the scene and out of the danger zone. Only FiveThirtyEight tracked the two men down for comment, a quarter mile down the street.

“People were screaming ‘Terrorist!’ ‘Communist!’ ‘Socialist!'” Sorando said when we caught up with him. “I had a guy tell me he was gonna kill me.”

Asked what had precipitated the event, “We were just chanting ‘Obama!’ and holding our signs. That was it. And the crowd suddenly got crazy.”

October 27, 2008

Is Virginia the key ..

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:24 pm

… to an Obama victory next Tuesday?

Possibly.

Here’s a bit from TPM Election Central:

Three new polls have now found Barack Obama with a clear and decisive lead in Virginia, bringing him one crucial step closer to a majority in the Electoral College:

SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3.9% margin of error, not significantly different from a 53%-43% Obama lead from three weeks ago. Nine percent of respondents have already voted, giving Obama a 67%-30% majority, and he’s ahead 50%-44% among the remaining 91% of likely voters.

Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. There is no other recent Zogby phone poll for comparison.

Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 49%-46% Obama lead a month ago.

The early-vote number from SurveyUSA shows just what a hole John McCain is in. If he loses the early vote in a given state, he has to not only win the vote on Election Day, but win it by a large enough majority to overcome his early-vote deficit.

And here’s FiveThirtyEight:

Wish state might the McCain campaign really, really wish that they hadn’t insulted?

I’ll give you a hint. It’s not technically a state, but rather, a commonwealth.

Five separate polls of Virginia have been released within the past 48 hours. Zogby has Obama ahead by 7 points there, the Washington Post by 8, SurveyUSA by 9, Public Policy Polling also by 9, and Virgnia Commonwealth University by 11.

Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, is a bit more electorally potent than Colorado; Obama could afford to lose either New Hampshire or New Mexico if he won there (though not both), which is not true about the Rocky Mountain state. We are currently projecting Obama to win every John Kerry state, except New Hampshire, but plus Iowa, by double digits. If Obama wins all of those states plus Virginia, he’s at 268 electoral votes, meaning that any more electoral votes anywhere in the country would win him the election.

538 projections one week and day out

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:07 pm

And as an added bonus, I’m throwing in their “super tracker.”

 

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 24, 2008

Gallup’s numbers a week-and-a-half out

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:07 pm

Remain strong for Obama.

From the link:

Barack Obama maintains a statistically significant lead over John McCain among likely voters interviewed Tuesday through Thursday as part of the Gallup Poll Daily tracking program, with a 51% to 44% margin using an “expanded” model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters, and a 50% to 45% margin using the “traditional” model Gallup has employed in past elections.

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These results are based on Oct. 21-23 polling. The precise numbers vary slightly from day to day, as would be expected given normal sampling considerations and the high-visibility campaign currents that are swirling around voters in the closing days of the campaign. Obama’s share of the vote has been within a very narrow range of 49% to 51% among the traditional likely voter group over the last two weeks, and within a 50% to 53% range among the expanded likely voter group. There has been only slightly more fluidity in McCain’s share, ranging from 44% to 47% among traditional likely voters, and 42% to 46% among the expanded group. These slight shifts in estimates of each candidate’s share are minimal. Nothing so far represents a major change in the structure of the race, and the big picture conclusion is that Obama is maintaining his lead over McCain with less than two weeks to go before Election Day.

If you’re catching this page from a web search for Gallup polling and have yet to check out FiveThirtyEight.com, I heartily suggest you do so. The polls are statistically crunched (by Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus fame) every day, plus he runs 10,000 simulated electoral results to provide projections for the presidential and Senate races.

October 23, 2008

Final 12 days 538 projection

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 8:33 pm

Obama’s highest numbers ever after a group of very strong battleground state polls.

Here’s the break down on the numbers behind this group of projections.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 22, 2008

Is McCain giving up

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 3:55 pm

It’s really starting to look that way given the states he’s already conceding based on where his dollars are going.

From the link:

Note that it’s not just Colorado on the chopping block, but also Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Michigan was conceded some weeks ago. Iowa and New Mexico are on life support. Essentially, McCain seems to be giving up on any path to victory that does not involve Pennsylvania — a state that we presently project Barack Obama to win by 9.7 points.

More bad news for the GOP

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 3:16 pm

It was a given that this election year was going be rough on the Republican Party, but things are really looking down and might even be worse than current polling reflects.

Even the buzz is working against the GOP.

From the link:

2. Enthusiasm is much higher among Democrats than among Republicans. The latest Diageo/Hotline numbers show that 72 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting for their candidate, as opposed to 55 percent of Republicans.

October 21, 2008

538 projections two weeks out

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 12:13 pm

Only two more weeks in the horse race. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s projection:

Obama’s been over 90% for quite a while now. If you’d like more background on FiveThirtyEight’s excellent statistics work, hit this link.

From the link:

Tracking Poll Primer

Now that there are fully eight distinct national tracking polls, I thought I’d take the time to give you my Cliff’s Notes assessment of each one. The polls are arranged in the order in which they typically appear throughout the day — as you may have discovered, you can get your tracking poll fix quite literally morning, noon and night.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 16, 2008

Gallup sees race tighten after last debate

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 10:44 pm

But nothing like the Drudge Report highlight.

Here’s today’s Gallup release:

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.

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Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night’s third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University, which began at 9 p.m. ET. It will be several days before the full impact of this debate can be measured in the three-day rolling average, although its initial impact might be apparent as early as Friday’s report.

So where did Drudge get those numbers (Obama 49, McCain 47)? A real, but older and somewhat set aside, set of criteria. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight unpacks things a bit here.

From the link:

Slow news day, Matt? If this is a two-point race right now, I’ll eat Drudge’s fedora. None of the dozen or so other polls that were in the field this week shows a race that close. Nor do either of the alternate versions of Gallup’s model, including the so-called Likely Voters II model that I find most credible. (Drudge, of course, had no interest in featuring the Zogby poll, as he had for the past several of days on his site, but which today showed Obama gaining ground.)

Let me be clear: I don’t blame Drudge for trying to drive the narrative. Unlike certain other folks, it’s not as though he’s made any claim to being objective. With real news — which polls aren’t — he generally has excellent and entertaining instincts.

538 projections in the homestretch

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:17 pm

The debates are done and the homestretch portion of this election has officially begun. The numbers are not pretty for McCain in any of the polls, etc.

Not surprisingly this holds doubly true with the current FiveThirtyEight projection:

Here’s a little context on these figures from the site itself:

Again, when you look at the pie chart on the upper left of the page (note from dk — that’s the chart above), you see a decimal point to one place on the electoral vote projection. That number comes from the 10,000 daily simulations the model runs. Essentially, it’s the final outcome simulated 10,000 times and then divided by 10,000. This monthly snapshot says, if we give 100% of the electoral votes for each state we project into one candidate’s column, the final tally would be:

Senator Barack Obama, Democratic Party: 364 electoral votes
Senator John McCain, Republican Party: 169 electoral votes
Undetermined: 5 electoral votes.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 13, 2008

The FiveThirtyEight projections for today …

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 12:59 pm

… are off the wall for Obama. McCain needs a real good — make that very good — week to stay competitive. Time is running out and Obama has all the mo right now.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 9, 2008

Obama’s 538 projection now over 90%

Filed under: et.al. — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:56 pm

Crazy numbers. And I hope everyone caught Nate Silver on The Colbert Report this week.

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 2, 2008

Big Obama numbers from 538

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 10:33 am

Actually eye-popping projections from FiveThirtyEight right now:

And as always,

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

September 28, 2008

538 projections after McCain’s failure of a week

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:23 pm

McCain posts a total “FAIL” of a week and Obama reaps the polling and projection benefits.

The latest from FiveThirtyEight.com:

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

September 20, 2008

538 projections showing McCain’s bounce is over

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 7:58 pm

Obama regains his customary position in a comfortable lead according to the presedential projections at FiveThirtyEight.

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

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