David Kirkpatrick

October 22, 2008

More bad news for the GOP

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 3:16 pm

It was a given that this election year was going be rough on the Republican Party, but things are really looking down and might even be worse than current polling reflects.

Even the buzz is working against the GOP.

From the link:

2. Enthusiasm is much higher among Democrats than among Republicans. The latest Diageo/Hotline numbers show that 72 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting for their candidate, as opposed to 55 percent of Republicans.

April 2, 2008

Follow the money …

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:20 pm

to the Democratic Party. Even though all the news right now is focused on the Democratic presidential primary, the larger story for this election cycle is the big money donations flowing to both parties.

In a clear hedging of bets, corporate America is giving to the Democrats in record numbers. This has profound implications on all the races, particularly the downticket races that will fill Senate and House seats. And don’t discount state and local contests, either.

To my mind the GOP completely squandered an opportunity to showcase limited government and fiscal responsibility over the first six years of the Bush 43 regime while holding the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. Instead the GOP somehow became the party of extreme deficit spending, cronyism and incompetence.

Most likely this November the GOP will get a major slap-down. Count me among those who hope it happens, and is a major wake-up call to get the GOP back on the track of fiscal conservatism. Without that, I have little to no reason to pull a GOP lever. And I’d sit out before ever pulling a straight Democratic ticket.

From the CFO.com link covering the “big four” accounting firm’s donations this cycle:

For the first time in more than a decade political campaign contributions from the accounting industry are starting to shift toward Democratic candidates.

Political action committees (PACs) for the Big Four accounting firms and the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants have favored Republicans in doling out corporate campaign contributions since the late ’90s. But the 2006 election seems to have instigated a shift.

According to recent Federal Election Commission data, PACs for KPMG, Deloitte & Touche LLP and PricewaterhouseCoopers have noticeably increased their contributions to Democrats since the party took control of Congress in the midterm elections.

For example, according to FEC filings, Deloitte still gives more of its total contribution (61.6 percent) to Republicans than to Democrats. But the percentage going to Republicans has fallen. In 2007 and the first two months of 2008, Deloitte increased the percent of its total contributions going to Democrats by 13 percent over the 2006 election season.

PwC, too, upped contributions to Democrats 12.8 percent over 2006. KPMG started increasing donations to Democrats even earlier. In 2006, KPMG gave ten percent more to Democrats than it did in the 2004 election season and has given 7 percent more in the current election season than it gave in 2006.

PACs for Ernst & Young and the AICPA have increased the percent of their contributions going to Democrats as well, although the increases are smaller. Each has contributed 7 percent more to Democrats this election season than they did in 2006.

Contributions typically increase during presidential election years because of the expensive race to the White House. But while most of the country is watching the presidential race play out, accounting firms have so far focused their largesse on legislators in Congress and the Senate.

February 16, 2008

Obama takes lead

Filed under: et.al. — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:46 pm

Obama leads Clinton in “poll of polls” (click image for larger, and readable for that matter, version)


(Hat tip: the Daily Dish)

February 14, 2008

Democrat labor endorsements

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 10:56 pm

Interesting breakdown from Daily Kos on how labor endorsements will affect/are affecting the Democratic primaries.

Particularly how today’s UFCW and the expected SEIU endorsements will help Obama on the ground.

February 13, 2008

Edwards to endorse Clinton?

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:41 pm

Is John Edwards considering endorsing Clinton?

I don’t see him submarining his clout at this point by picking the wrong candidate. My guess is this is merely an attention gathering move. In the linked piece he works pretty hard at praising both candidates.

February 12, 2008

Dem’s road is clear

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:34 pm

This is an interesting breakdown of the road to the Democratic nomination. Essentially the magic number is 1627 pledged delegates. Once either candidate reaches that threshold only the superdelegates can swing the nomination the other way.

I’d say if that happens for either candidate, the Democratic party will have hell to pay for multiple election cycles.

From the breakdown:

The Real Magic Number is 1,627

Last updated: 2/12, 12:18 PM.

In 2008, 3,253 delegates will be chosen through caucuses and primaries to represent Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton at the Democratic National Convention. Once one of the candidates has won a majority of those democratically selected delegates (also known as pledged delegates), the only way his or her opponent could win the nomination is with the support of the 796 unelected, unaccountable superdelegates — in the process overturning the judgment of the voters.50% +1 of 3,253 is 1,627. Therefore, with 1,627 pledged delegates, a candidate will win the nomination — unless the superdelegates step in and reverse the decision of the voters. Here’s where the numbers are today.

February 11, 2008

Drudge drubs Clinton

Filed under: Media, Politics — Tags: , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 7:10 pm

Matt Drudge, an early recipient of Clinton campaign insider dirt, has a report of Clinton panic.

I bet that link won’t last too long, so here’s the report …

Mon Feb 11 2008 19:00:49 ET
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers are increasingly concerned that she could be on a “precipitous losing streak” in nomination contests this month that could “endanger her competitiveness in the upcoming votes in Ohio and Texas” on March 4, the NEW YORK TIMES is planning to report on Tuesday, newsroom sources tell the DRUDGE REPORT.

Reporter Patrick Healy was polishing up a story which details how Clinton’s losses last weekend in Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine have thrown her campaign “into a state of anxiety not seen since her drubbing in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, with major donors and supporters saying for the first time that they are deeply worried that the Democratic nomination may be slipping from her grasp.”


It ain’t over but,

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:14 pm

Dick Morris is now predicting an Obama nomination. I think the momentum is there and just about unstoppable. Add Clinton’s money problems to the mix and it looks like Morris is handicapping a horse race after the second turn.

From the article:

Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.

The real question is can Clinton lose with grace?

February 5, 2008

Tsunami Tuesday updates

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:11 pm

(I’ll periodically add to this post with Super Tuesday updates. All numbers are from CNN.com unless otherwise noted.)

6 pm CST — CNN already calls Georgia for Obama and Huckabee in West Virginia. The current numbers for WV have Huckabee at 52% and Romney with 47%.

6:50 — In Georgia the GOP race is a dead heat with 2% of the vote reporting. McCain is at 36% and Huckabee has 35%.  Romney’s back at 25%.

8:30 — CNN calls more states. Obama wins Illinois and Delaware. Clinton takes New York, Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma

McCain is romping winning New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut and Illinois. Huckabee gets Arkansas and Romney wins Massachusetts.

9:15 — More results. Obama wins North Dakota and Alabama. Clinton wins Massachusetts and New Jersey.

McCain keeps rolling winning Oklahoma. Romney gets Utah.

10:00 — Obama takes Minnesota, Kansas and Connecticut. Huckabee wins Alabama and McCain carries Arizona.

11:10 — Obama racks up Colorado, Idaho and Utah. With 14% reporting Clinton leads in California 55% to 32%.

Romney’s pace increases with wins in Minnesota, Montana, Colorado and North Dakota. Huckabee gets Tennessee and Georgia.

Missouri remains a key state for both parties and is seeing very tight voting totals. The Democrats split the delegates by percentage so winning the majority is pretty much for bragging rights. The GOP primary is winner-take-all, however, and right now with 98% of the vote in McCain has 33% and Huckabee has 32%.

11:45 — Clinton wins California and Arizona. Obama gets Alaska.

McCain wins both California and Missouri. The Missouri win is particularly big, as outlined above.

The only GOP state remaining is Alaska. We’re still waiting on New Mexico and Missouri for the Democrats. As the talking heads on CNN have all pretty much agreed Huckabee’s strong showing is the big surprise of the night.

12:18 am — The final update. Obama and Clinton are going to fairly evenly split the Missouri delegates, but with 99% reporting CNN has yet to call a winner. Obama leads at the moment. New Mexico votes are coming in and Clinton has a solid 53-38% lead with 15% reporting.

On the GOP side, Alaska is still not reporting results.

Huckabee is the big winner of the night. On the Democratic side both Obama and Clinton can claim success, but Obama displayed an ability to score votes across the spectrum of geography and demographics.

February 4, 2008

More Tsunami Tuesday runup

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:48 pm

McCain expects to wrap up the GOP nomination tomorrow.

From the article:

“From what we see in the polls, there is a very good chance it could be over on Tuesday,” said the Arizona senator, adding: “The sooner we get that done, the sooner I can go to work on uniting the party.”

Bob Novak opines Hillary won’t be the Democratic nominee when the sun rises Wednesday despite a front-loaded primary system created by Terry McAuliffe to help Clinton.

He writes:

There is no mathematical possibility of Super Tuesday balloting in 22 states for 1,681 delegates — labeled the first ”national” primary — giving either Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama close to the 2,025 delegates necessary for nomination. That unexpected reality is produced by Obama’s appeal, Clinton fatigue and extreme proportional representation adopted by the Democratic Party.

Republicans are ready to crown Sen. John McCain as their nominee. Democrats will still be battling.

January 29, 2008

Obama making gains in Cali

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:52 pm

Interesting Dem poll numbers and analysis from California. These results show the Clinton lead is much more narrow than previously thought (down to 11 points from what some polls had in the 20 point range.)

Maybe even more interesting is Obama is beginning to get a real bounce from the South Carolina blowout, and analysis of the raw poll numbers point to the race being more close than even 11%.

(Hat tip: the Daily Dish)

January 25, 2008

The long Democratic road

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:58 pm

There’s a thorough analysis at Tapped, the American Prospect’s blog, covering the Democratic primary delegate count. The gist is neither Obama or Clinton is expected to leave Tsunami Tuesday with more than a 10% lead in delegates.

The relatively delegate-light primaries over the rest of February and through March — about 1000 delegates added compared to 1688 awarded February 5 — means a drawn-out struggle for the nomination. And will stoke the fires of all the observers hoping for a brokered convention.

January 24, 2008

The Dem field narrows

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 5:57 pm

Dennis Kucinich is latest presidential race casualty. His campaign had zero momentum and he was pulling an insignificant number of votes. Kucinich says he will not endorse any of the other hopefuls.