David Kirkpatrick

September 13, 2008

I’ve read a few prescient …

Filed under: Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:15 am

… posts on this subject around the blogosphere (with a nice summation here from a Daily Dish reader).

The subject? McCain has completely seized the narrative of the election right now with the full complicity of the leftist blogs.

I just checked out the Daily Kos to see how that played out and found the first headline, “McCain Distorts and Twists on Taxes, Says Obama.”

Number one leads with McCain’s name. The next three are the usual “diary rescue,” etc. along with a hurricane update.

Number five is titled, “Oh Yeah. He’s A Maverick, All Right.” All McCain, no Obama.

Not long ago everyone — including me — was commenting on how all the left blogs were focused on Obama and all the right blogs were, too. Right now the calculus has completely flipped. McCain owns the electronic media cycle.

Things are getting very interesting. And the left may well be paving a road to their own personal hell. And no Nader to blame this time around.

Personally I’d love to see Obama in office, if nothing else to help break up the farce that is today’s GOP, but if I were the Democratic candidate I’m sure I would be at the point of thinking, “With friends like these …”

April 20, 2008

War criminals in the Bush 43 regime

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 5:43 pm

Here’s a voice of reason from a member of the US military and a true patriot.

From the Daily Dish link:

“Haynes, Feith, Yoo, Bybee, Gonzalez and – at the apex – Addington, should never travel outside the US, except perhaps to Saudi Arabia and Israel. They broke the law; they violated their professional ethical code. In future, some government may build the case necessary to prosecute them in a foreign court, or in an international court,” – Larry Wilkerson, former army officer and chief of staff to Colin Powell, US secretary of state at the time the torture program was set up.

April 16, 2008

Gingrich on the state of the GOP

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:51 pm

Via the Daily Dish, Newt speaks the truth about today’s GOP:

“They went off the rails. That’s it. They took a majority that took 16 years to build and they destroyed it … There was a fundamental misunderstanding about how to govern. The concept of red versus blue is a tactic, not a strategy. In the long run, in order to mobilize your base, you tend to become more intense and your positions become more vitriolic, and you drive away the independents. Then you are no longer a majority,” – Newt Gingrich on what has happened to the GOP over the last eight years.

April 10, 2008

Is McCain’s national lead a mirage?

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 5:56 pm

Andrew Sullivan, and others, think so.

From the link:

That was my recent take. Chuck Todd maps McCain’s path to victory and his challenges:

Currently polls show McCain either narrowly ahead or even with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. It is impressive considering how poorly the GOP, and specifically the president, are viewed by the public.

But it is a faux lead. If the de facto Democratic nominee is clear within the next 4-6 weeks, that person will see a poll bounce. And according to GOP pollster Steve Lombardo, it could be one heck of a bounce, like post-convention. He anticipates the Democratic candidate will move up 10 points once the primary race is over.

April 2, 2008

Bill’s all jacked up

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 5:32 pm

Intense anger is never a sign of confidence.

From the Daily Dish:

The San Francisco Chronicle on Bill’s tirade at a super delegate meeting:

…as the group moved together for the perfunctory photo, Rachel Binah, a former Richardson delegate who now supports Hillary Clinton, told Bill how “sorry” she was to have heard former Clinton campaign manager James Carville call Richardson a “Judas” for backing Obama.

It was as if someone pulled the pin from a grenade.

“Five times to my face (Richardson) said that he would never do that,” a red-faced, finger-pointing Clinton erupted.

The former president then went on a tirade that ran from the media’s unfair treatment of Hillary to questions about the fairness of the votes in state caucuses that voted for Obama. It ended with him asking delegates to imagine what the reaction would be if Obama was trailing by just 1 percent and people were telling him to drop out.

“It was very, very intense,” said one attendee. “Not at all like the Bill of earlier campaigns.”

March 28, 2008

Bob Casey endorses Obama

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 3:09 pm

Bob Casey, a senator from Pennsylvania, has endorsed Obama. Clinton is expected to win Pennsylvania by a very wide (read — around 20%) margin, and her beyond slim hopes rest on that outcome.

If Obama keeps that victory within single digits she’s done. If he were to win Penn, she would pretty much have to drop out of the race. At this point I’m not sure she’d do it, but either scenario is ballgame for Obama. Clinton’s Bosnia “misstatement” has caused her much more damage than it seemed at first blush.

In related news, the kitchen sink/toilet bowl strategy is not working in the least. According to Gallup’s national poll, on March 23 they were basically in a statistical dead heat at around 47%. Obama’s been steadily trending upwards since then and leads 50-42 in the latest poll. (Hit this link for a Daily Dish post and the rolling poll.)

From the first link:

In a surprise move, Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania has endorsed Senator Barack Obama in advance of the April 22 Democratic primary. Mr. Casey had said he would remain neutral in the race in part because he wanted to help broker a reconciliation between Mr. Obama and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton afterward.

“I believe in my heart that there is one person who’s uniquely qualified to lead us in that new direction and that is Barack Obama.” Mr. Casey said during a rally in Pittsburgh Friday.

“I really believe that in a time of danger around the world and in division here at home, Barack Obama can lead us, he can heal us, he can help rebuild America,” he said.

Mr. Casey is going against the grain in his state, where polls show Mrs. Clinton ahead by at least 12 percentage points and where she has the endorsement of most of the state’s major Democratic figures.

March 12, 2008

The latest Democratic nomination math

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 3:13 pm

This is a solid breakdown from the Daily Kos.

From the link:

But if we’re suddenly going to use the popular vote as a meaningful measure in this campaign, then we should strive to actually count that popular vote best we can. So what I’ll do for caucus states is divide the state delegate percentages (as opposed to pledged delegates) by the total turnout. It’s an inexact science, but it should keep things within an acceptable margin of error.

So for all the other contests:

Obama: 13,025,003
Clinton: 12,421,316

That’s a 603,687-vote advantage for Obama. Now for NV, WA and ME:

     Turnout  Obama %  Clinton %  Popular vote advantageIA:   220,588   38       30        Obama  +17,646
NV:   117,599   45       51        Clinton +7,055
WA:   250,000   68       32        Obama  +90,000
ME:    45,000   59       40        Obama   +8,550

That’s about 56,500109,141 votes, putting Obama’s lead at around 713,000 votes.

That still leaves the Texas caucuses, which haven’t finished reporting out. Turnout for the first 40 percent of precincts reporting is about 500,000. Now that includes some of the more populous precincts, so we can’t just project out. Rather, the estimate I hear bandied around is about 1 million participants. So let’s say the numbers ended up were stuck today — 56-44 Obama — that would mean a gain for Obama of 120,000 in the popular vote.

Suddenly, Obama’s lead is about 780,000 833,000.

Unless Obama suffers an epic collapse, he should end this contest with a lead in the popular vote, a lead in the pledged delegates, and a lead in the number of states won.

Clinton will apparently attempt her coup by super delegates, but that path lies civil war. I doubt the supers are that stupid.

I followed this Daily Kos link from the Daily Dish, and agree with Sullivan. He writes, “Do the Clintons seriously intend to overturn that?” I’m going to guess, yes. Team Clinton honestly thinks she deserves the nomination, even while losing the popular vote, pledged delegates and total states won. It’s becoming almost impossible for Clinton to pass Obama in any of those three areas.

Her campaign has been certifiably full of incompetence, misdirection, obfuscation and even a few outright lies. Hopefully Obama won’t be brought low by these tactics. So far he’s doing more than keeping above the water line.

February 14, 2008

Texas primary (-ies)

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 8:49 pm

Here’s a Daily Dish post that is designed to outline potential Clinton problems winning the Texas primary. It also is a decent quick-and-easy explanation of what looks to be very convoluted primary/caucus here in the Lone Star State.