David Kirkpatrick

October 30, 2008

Less than a week out, here’s Charlie Cook’s analysis …

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 12:55 am

of the presidential race. I guess technically this analysis is for one week out since he put it out on Tuesday.

From the link:

October 28, 2008
Since early September this race has shifted rather dramatically in Obama’s favor. As long as the focus is almost exclusively on the economy, this race is almost unwinnable for McCain. It would take a major external event, the proverbial October Surprise, to shift the spotlight to national security or some other subject that would allow McCain to highlight his strengths. At this stage, the most relevant question would seem to be: “How big will the train wreck be for the Republican Party up and down the ballot in November.” Obama currently has a 286 to 163 Electoral vote edge, with 89 Electoral votes in the Toss Up column. 270 are needed to win.

October 22, 2008

Charlie Cook breaks down …

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 10:51 pm

… the dwindling hopes for McCain and the GOP.

From the link:

At this point it would be difficult to see Republican losses in the Senate and House to be fewer than seven and 20 respectively. A very challenging situation going into September turned into a meltdown last month, the most dire predictions for the GOP early on became the most likely outcome.

The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over, it’s only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn’t that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one. First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win. Sure, we have seen come-from-behind victories, but they didn’t come back this far this late.

Second, early voting has made comebacks harder and would tend to diminish the impact of the kind of late-breaking development that might save McCain’s candidacy. With as many as one-third of voters likely to cast their ballot before Election Day, every day more are cast and the campaign is effectively over for them. The longer Obama has this kind of lead and the more votes are cast early, the more voters are out of the pool for McCain.

One word — ouch.