David Kirkpatrick

April 6, 2009

Obama’s approval split

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:20 pm

Split on party lines to a historic degree. This is a direct result of the Limbaughian efforts to demonize the president, but it’s more damningly evidence the GOP is totally bereft of ideas at the moment.

From the link:

For all of his hopes about bipartisanship, Barack Obama has the most polarized early job approval ratings of any president in the past four decades. The 61-point partisan gap in opinions about Obama’s job performance is the result of a combination of high Democratic ratings for the president — 88% job approval among Democrats — and relatively low approval ratings among Republicans (27%).

obama-approval-jpeg1

This polarization is partly a function of how U.S. politics has been played for a while (and I think it’s fair to place some blame on the internet and partisan political forums fostering an us-against-them mentality), but it’s also clearly the direct result of a deliberate Republican strategy.

Very dangerous territory for the GOP. The hope is if Obama’s effort to solve the financial crisis fails, or when aspects of the meltdown don’t respond the way the general public is hoping for, Obama gets the blame and a chastened public turns to the GOP for solutions.

This cunning plan has a lot of holes. One, the public is giving Obama a lot of latitude in dealing with the economy and currently blames the previous GOP administration for the bulk of the problem. Two, the GOP is totally bereft of ideas (see this post for a great example) and even if the public turns on Obama, the Democrats have plenty of ammunition to say, “At least we’re trying. Do you really trust the Republicans, the party who opposed Obama from day one?”

I think the GOP is very likely facing a much heavier backlash than expected for immediately turning on Obama. The public rallied around Bush after 9/11, and I think the public understands this deep economic slowdown requires the same level support to ensure the nation doesn’t fail. When Limbaugh, as the de facto voice of the GOP, says he hopes Obama fails, most people hear the GOP wants America to fail. Don’t think these sounds bites are going away. They may fade from memory, but you’ll be seeing a lot of Rush in 2010 and 2012.

March 16, 2009

GOP on GOP polling numbers

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:21 pm

Ouch.

The approval rating of GOP leaders among Republicans has plummeted 12 points in a month, down from 55% in February to a minority of 43% now. That’s striking.

Not only that, but approval of GOP leaders overall has dropped to 28% overall — the lowest rating for GOP leaders in 12 years of Pew polling.

In fact, approval of Republican congressional leaders has fallen from 34% in February to 28% currently, the lowest rating for GOP leaders in nearly 14 years of Pew Research surveys.

Why is this happening? Is it general lack of morale among Republicans? Is it that GOP voters are frustrated that their leaders haven’t succeeded in blocking Obama’s agenda? Or could it be that the Dem strategy of using Rush Limbaugh to drive a wedge between die-hard partisan Republicans and those who want to see Obama succeed is working? Something is turning Republicans against their own leadership — in big numbers.

pewpoll

(Hat tip — the Daily Dish)

March 13, 2009

Obama’s popularity numbers

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:38 pm

Nate Silver at 538 takes on an od-ed from the Wall Street Journal today. Looks like the WSJ conclusion isn’t borne out by the actual numbers.

From the link:

This is the first paragraph of a commentary by Doug Schoen and Scott Rasmussen in today’s Wall Street Journal:

It is simply wrong for commentators to continue to focus on President Barack Obama’s high levels of popularity, and to conclude that these are indicative of high levels of public confidence in the work of his administration. Indeed, a detailed look at recent survey data shows that the opposite is most likely true. The American people are coming to express increasingly significant doubts about his initiatives, and most likely support a different agenda and different policies from those that the Obama administration has advanced.

Scott is an extremely fair-minded guy and someone whom we have partnered with in the past. I don’t know Doug Schoen, other than that he’s Mark Penn’s business partner. In any event, I think their lede is just wrong. Barack Obama’s Gallup approval ratings, as of this afternoon, are 62 percent approve and 27 percent disapprove. Those are pretty good scores. The average of all Gallup approval ratings taken for all Presidents, going all the way back to 1937, is 54.9 percent approve and 35.2 percent disapprove; Obama is about 8 points ahead of those numbers on either side. He is notably more popular than an American president usually is, and it would therefore stand to reason that he has proportionately more power than average to advance his agenda. It is not wrong for commentators to notate this fact.

January 16, 2009

Bush 43’s approval ratings …

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 5:28 pm

… in a chart. I think if that were a profit chart, the CEO-in-chief would get the axe long before now.

George W. Bush's approval ratings over his two terms.

George W. Bush's approval ratings over his two terms.

September 23, 2008

Bush 43 approval rating into teens

Filed under: et.al., Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 12:52 am

He’s now at 19% overall.

From the link:

Overall, 19% of Americans say that they approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, 76% disapprove, and 5% are undecided.

Bush job approval Approve Disapprove Undecided
 
Sep 2008 19% 76% 5%
Aug 2008 30% 64% 6%
Jul 2008 21% 72% 7%
Jun 2008 25% 71% 4%
May 2008 28% 69% 3%
Apr 2008 22% 72% 6%
Mar 2008 24% 75% 1%
Feb 2008 19% 77% 4%
Jan 2008 34% 59% 7%
Dec 2007 32% 66% 2%
Nov 2007 31% 64% 5%
Oct 2007 25% 67% 8%
Sep 2007 34% 60% 6%

Among Republicans (33% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 48% approve of the way Bush is handling his job and 46% disapprove. Among Democrats (40% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 3% approve and 95% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job. Among independents (27% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 8% approve and 87% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job as president.

Overall, 17% of Americans say that they approve of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy, 78% disapprove, and 5% are undecided. Among registered voters, 18% approve and 78% disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy.