David Kirkpatrick

November 4, 2008

Election day 538 projection

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:49 am

Here’s the final FiveThirtyEight projection before the polls open here in a few hours.

Did much lighter blogging yesterday (read: none) because of a medical emergency, and possibly might not be able to do much today.

Update — Actually here’s the absolute final projection taking into account the straggler polls. Even worse news for McCain. And thanks to the gang at FiveThirtyEight for the incredible number crunching over this electoral season. They may have created a sea-change in political polling. An often seamy and slanted part of the game.

October 29, 2008

Less than one week 538 projections

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:42 pm

Holding strong for Obama.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 27, 2008

538 projections one week and day out

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:07 pm

And as an added bonus, I’m throwing in their “super tracker.”

 

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 23, 2008

Final 12 days 538 projection

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 8:33 pm

Obama’s highest numbers ever after a group of very strong battleground state polls.

Here’s the break down on the numbers behind this group of projections.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 21, 2008

538 projections two weeks out

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 12:13 pm

Only two more weeks in the horse race. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s projection:

Obama’s been over 90% for quite a while now. If you’d like more background on FiveThirtyEight’s excellent statistics work, hit this link.

From the link:

Tracking Poll Primer

Now that there are fully eight distinct national tracking polls, I thought I’d take the time to give you my Cliff’s Notes assessment of each one. The polls are arranged in the order in which they typically appear throughout the day — as you may have discovered, you can get your tracking poll fix quite literally morning, noon and night.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 16, 2008

538 projections in the homestretch

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:17 pm

The debates are done and the homestretch portion of this election has officially begun. The numbers are not pretty for McCain in any of the polls, etc.

Not surprisingly this holds doubly true with the current FiveThirtyEight projection:

Here’s a little context on these figures from the site itself:

Again, when you look at the pie chart on the upper left of the page (note from dk — that’s the chart above), you see a decimal point to one place on the electoral vote projection. That number comes from the 10,000 daily simulations the model runs. Essentially, it’s the final outcome simulated 10,000 times and then divided by 10,000. This monthly snapshot says, if we give 100% of the electoral votes for each state we project into one candidate’s column, the final tally would be:

Senator Barack Obama, Democratic Party: 364 electoral votes
Senator John McCain, Republican Party: 169 electoral votes
Undetermined: 5 electoral votes.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 9, 2008

Obama’s 538 projection now over 90%

Filed under: et.al. — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:56 pm

Crazy numbers. And I hope everyone caught Nate Silver on The Colbert Report this week.

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

September 28, 2008

538 projections after McCain’s failure of a week

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 4:23 pm

McCain posts a total “FAIL” of a week and Obama reaps the polling and projection benefits.

The latest from FiveThirtyEight.com:

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

September 20, 2008

538 projections showing McCain’s bounce is over

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 7:58 pm

Obama regains his customary position in a comfortable lead according to the presedential projections at FiveThirtyEight.

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

June 30, 2008

538 projections — end of June

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:28 pm

Here’s the latest election projections from FiveThirtyEight.com.

Update 8/14/08 — If you’re finding this page now hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

September 11, 2008

McCain takes lead in 538’s “win percentage” projection

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 12:31 am

This is a first as far as I know. If this is the extent of the bounce it’ll be very interesting to see how the numbers shake out over the next two weeks or so.

Also interesting to see how each campaign reacts to the changing situation, although internal polling may show something radically different than the FiveThirtyEight polling data.

The latest projections:

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

August 24, 2008

538 presidential projections tighten

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 3:56 pm

The latest from FiveThirtyEight. This week has found the projections as tight as they’ve been to date:

Expect a bump (not the 15% the McCain team is bloviating about) for Obama post convention. Same thing for McCain. It’ll be interesting to see the results when the two sit down together for an actual debate and not a christianist jackoff session like Saddleback.

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

August 13, 2008

Mid-August 538 presidential projections

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:40 am

The latest projections for the presidenial race from 538:

Update 8/14/08 — If you’re finding this page now hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

July 28, 2008

538 presidential projections — final week of July

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 3:02 am

Here’s the presidential race projections from FiveThirtyEight.com for 7/28/08.

Update 8/14/08 — If you’re finding this page now hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

July 21, 2008

The latest projections from 538

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:11 pm

Presidential race projections from FiveThirtyEight.com:

Update 8/14/08 — If you’re finding this page now hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

July 13, 2008

Mid-July projections from 538

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 6:06 pm

Here’s the latest projections from FiveThirtyEight.com:

Update 8/14/08 — If you’re finding this page now hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

June 25, 2008

Current presidential election projections from 538

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 12:59 am

This projected election results chart from FiveThirtyEight.com looks daunting for McCain:

Pretty hard numbers coming from a group of pretty hard number-crunchers. 538’s analysis is courtesy of one of the Baseball Prospectus guys, and they take data and statistics very seriously.

The site has been accused of a pro-Obama slant and it does seem the opinion on the site leans heavily toward the Democratic nominee, but don’t think support for a candidate would necessarily translate to cooking the books for the nominee. GOPers dismissing 538’s projections are doing so at their own peril.

Update 8/14/08 — If you’re finding this page now hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 31, 2008

538 four days out

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:19 pm

Holding steady for Obama.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 13, 2008

The FiveThirtyEight projections for today …

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 12:59 pm

… are off the wall for Obama. McCain needs a real good — make that very good — week to stay competitive. Time is running out and Obama has all the mo right now.

And of course, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

October 2, 2008

Big Obama numbers from 538

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 10:33 am

Actually eye-popping projections from FiveThirtyEight right now:

And as always,

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

September 2, 2008

Post Dem convention polling from 538

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 7:14 pm

Obama got a boost from the convention last week, and I’m betting a little from McCain’s veep pick as well. Palin may appeal to the religious right for now, but undecided independant voters may be heading to Obama’s camp after such a blantantly nonserious selection.

At Rasmussen Obama is enjoying his highest numbers of the entire election.

Here’s the latest from FiveThirtyEight.

If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.

November 4, 2008

Results are coming in …

Filed under: Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 5:53 pm

… and I’m going to try very, very hard to not live blog. Medical crisis in the household has been taken care of, so I’m going to be all over the results and numbers.

It’ll be interesting to see who calls it for Obama first. Of course Drudge practically has already based on his exit polling “numbers.” If somehow McCain wins this thing — basically impossible if the FiveThirtyEight gang aren’t completely lost in space — the United States better buckle down for some serious, society-wrecking riots. The black community and left wing have all but been promised with a kiss an Obama win in the media today.

November 2, 2008

Homestretch notes

Filed under: Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 1:28 pm

Okay, here we are in the homestretch of this year’s presidential horserace. I’m not going to go nuts with posts — well, I might but I don’t expect to. I will post on anything that seems particularly significant and I’ll run 538’s projections tomorrow evening before the polling stations open Tuesday morning.

And, of course, if at all possible I’ll be doing some blogging Tuesday night as the polls close and results start coming in. However things go, it should be a fun night.

November 1, 2008

Could Obama win Georgia?

The guys at FiveThirtyEight think it’s a long shot, but absolutely possible. That would be unbelievable.

From the link:

What To Watch For

It’s entirely possible Georgia will give the Democratic Party its 60th Senate seat on Election Night, if Jim Martin beats Saxby Chambliss. All the House seats are pretty much safe, with incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall in central Georgia facing the toughest re-election in Georgia’s Republican-gerrymandered districts. Republicans are on defense all across the board again this cycle, so if Marshall survived in 2006, he should pull it off again in 2008. If the polls close in the eastern time zone and the nets can’t call Georgia for John McCain because it’s “too close to call,” we’ll all know who the next President-Elect will be.

And here’s the first November projection:

As always, If you’re finding this page later than today’s date hit this link for my latest update, or better yet head straight to 538 for their very latest projections.