KurzweilAI.net — Maybe by 2050?
How Long Till Human-Level AI? H+, Feb. 5, 2010
A significant numbers of individuals informed about AI believe it is likely that artificial general intelligence (AGI) at the human level or beyond will occur around the middle of this century, and plausibly even sooner, probably integrating a wide range of approaches, according to a survey of 21 AGI-09 conference participants.
The experts were asked when they estimated AI would reach each of four milestones:
passing the Turing test by carrying on a conversationwell enough to pass as a human solving problems as well as a third grade elementary school student performing Nobel-quality scientific work going beyond the human level to superhuman intelligence