David Kirkpatrick

October 14, 2008

CBS/NYT poll has Obama 53%, McCain 39%

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 10:48 pm

Probably an outlier, but not that crazy of an outlier. Just the fact McCain is sub-40% in any credible poll does nothing to stop the narrative his campaign is taking on serious water very late in the day.

Here’s some analysis from Ambinder on this chart:

 The jawdropping numbers from the CBS News / New York Times poll are, yes, the top-line…Obama leads among likely voters 53% to 39%.  But more than that: which candidate will raise your taxes? Respondents, by 51% to 46%, say it’s McCain.  (Why? One reason might be Obama’s advertising, which claims that McCain’s health care plan would raise taxes for “millions” of Americans.)   And preparation and readiness to be president don’t seem to be terribly important: 64% percent of the country thinks McCain is ready, but, generalizing here, a heck of a lot of those folks are voting against him.  He’s tied among whites, shooting up fifteen percentage points since the last survey; he’s winning men and women; he’s marginally improving his standing among white evangelicals; he’s substantially improved his standing among self-described moderates and among independents (a full third of this group swung toward Obama); Obama’s now getting 82% of Clinton supporters. 

You can bet that McCain’s polling team will respond to this one…a lot of the deltas in this poll are probably unprecedented for their time period.

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