David Kirkpatrick

June 17, 2008

The numbers are favoring Obama

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:23 pm

it’s pretty early in the race, but the current numbers look very favorable for Obama. On top of that you have to guess he’s going to get some level of bounce from any debate/town hall meeting/joint appearance with McCain.

I’ve already blogged on outing FiveThirtyEight.com blogger Poblano as Baseball Prospectus writer Nate Silver.

Here’s some great analysis and number crunching from FiveThirtyEight on battleground states:

Those with field experience may recognize the conventional wisdom/general rule that 5 points is the most a great field program’s ground game can make up against an accurate poll of voter preference.

According to 538 regression analysis, there are currently eleven states closer than 5 points, most of which show McCain with a narrow lead to defend.

In order of closeness and color coded by who currently leads, they are:

1. Virginia, 0.2%
2. Missouri, 0.3%
3. Nevada, 0.6%
4. New Hampshire, 1.0%
5. Michigan, 1.5%
6. Ohio, 1.6%
7. Indiana, 1.7%
8. North Carolina, 3.3%
9. North Dakota, 3.8%
10. Florida, 4.0%
11. Montana, 4.5%

Electorally, the 39 states and DC that lie outside this 5-point range: Obama 252, McCain 157.

For what it’s worth, there are twelve states between 5 and 10 points, and each candidate has 6 of them. Obama’s are Colorado (+5.1%), Pennsylvania (+5.7%), New Mexico (+6.3%), Wisconsin (+6.4%), Iowa (+8.7%), and New Jersey (+9.4%), for a total of 67 EVs. McCain’s are Alaska (+6.1%), South Dakota (+6.6%), West Virginia (+8.2%), Louisiana (+8.9%), South Carolina (+8.9%) and Georgia (+9.9%), for a total of 43 EVs.


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