David Kirkpatrick

February 20, 2008

Wisconsin Dem fallout

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , , , , , — David Kirkpatrick @ 2:15 pm

Obama wins in a somewhat surprising landslide last night in Wisconsin.

Here’s a bit from Ben Smith:

Senator Barack Obama picked up steam with ninth straight victory in Wisconsin, beating Senator Hillary Clinton in a state where she had no clear excuse for defeat, and leaving her no leeway at all for further major losses.

His win sets the stage for showdowns in Texas and Ohio on March 4, two states Clinton’s supporters acknowledge she must win.

Here in another piece from Politico Clinton’s problems seem to be mounting according to exit poll data. The post says Obama neutralized Clinton’s strength with women voters and “devastated” her with men.

The post goes on to say:

Obama also demonstrated continued improvement with whites, working class Democrats, and rural and suburban voters since Super Tuesday.

He split white women, marking about a 10-point improvement since early February. He also won half of married women, and even won single women. Obama took six in ten white men, a demographic that has shifted between the two candidates throughout the race. His white male support also marked about a 10-point improvement since Super Tuesday.

Regionally, the news was no better for Clinton. Obama won a majority of suburban voters, something Clinton did on Super Tuesday. He split rural voters, whom Clinton had won by about 20 points two weeks ago. Clinton also had won a slight majority of urban voters then. Obama won Wisconsin city dwellers by about a two to one ratio.

Clinton is in serious trouble if Texas is an absolute must-win, and it seriously looks that way. There are signs her team is already spinning for a possible loss in Texas, something that was unthinkable for them very recently.

Her “ready to lead on day one” team has acknowledged they miscounted the way delegates were awarded in the Lone Star State. They over-counted the number of delegates coming from the Latino heavy Valley, an assumed Clinton stronghold, and under-counted the delegates coming from urban Houston and Dallas, two areas of Obama strength.

And that’s not even taking into account the weird primary-plus-caucus of this Texas vote. Obama has excelled in caucuses, and doesn’t seem to be as caught with his pants down, so to speak, as the Clinton campaign on the Texas vote.

At this point I wonder if Clinton is willing to step aside if she loses Texas, or realistically if the vote is even close. Even the worst case scenarios for her campaign that had Obama dominating post-Tsunami Tuesday February didn’t take into account a series of complete blow-outs. It was always guessed with the Democrat’s proportional delegates split, she could hold her own pledged delegate-wise even losing. Instead she’s been losing by close to, or over, 60% in many states.

Obama has the pledged delegates and all the momentum. My guess is after Wisconsin, the mountain just got too high for Clinton. The fat lady hasn’t sung, but she’s done warming up and is standing stage right waiting on her cue.



  1. Hillary will not step aside. Ever. Her whole life has been leading up to this. Besides, the democrat party has all but assured her over the last year she would get the nod.

    She’ll go down kicking and screaming… and if we are lucky and she makes a big enough fuss she might lose her party support for her inevitable senate reelection campaign.


    Comment by jposty — February 20, 2008 @ 2:22 pm

  2. […] looks to be true, because it was found out recently her campaign didn’t understand Texas has a two-part primary-plus-caucus this year. Confusing? Yes. Stupid? Yes, again. But […]

    Pingback by If you can’t win … « David Kirkpatrick — February 29, 2008 @ 1:30 pm

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