Here’s another breakdown of how Obama could win the Texas primary March 4. It also includes even more detail about what looks like a somewhat confusing process this year.
From the post:
Key Point:Senator Obama can win Texas if he can hold his own on March 4 with the 126 Delegates that will be allocated based on the votes in Texas’ 31 Senate Districts, and then do well (as he has in the past) with the 67 delegates in the caucus-system that will fully be realized at the Texas Democratic Party Convention in June.
My analysis is based on the distribution of delegates in the Texas primary system. If you aren’t familiar with how the Texas primary works, here are two posts I’ve done to tell you everything you need:
- Everything You Need to Know About the Texas Delegate Process, Part 1 – This explains how Texas’ 228 delegates are allocated.
- Everything You Need to Know About the Texas Delegate Process, Part 2 – This explains how Texas’ 31 Senate Districts break down in terms of delegate strength.
The first thing that should be understood is that while Senator Clinton does have strong support in the Latino community, Latinos will not decide the Texas primary alone. In order for Senator Clinton to win in Texas, she will need a dramatic majority in the South Texas Senate Districts in order to actually gain a delegate advantage in that region — and doing that is harder than it looks.
(Hat tip: the Daily Dish)