David Kirkpatrick

December 24, 2009

Behavior in virtual worlds

More research into social interaction in a virtual environment. A very interesting field — I’ve blogged about this type of research before — and becoming more important as more people spend higher and higher percentages of time living “virtually” instead of engaging in face-to-face contact.

The release news article:

Understanding interaction in virtual worlds

Wed, 23 Dec 2009 14:33:00 GMT

New cinema blockbuster, Avatar, leapt to the top of box office charts as soon as it came out — a stunning 3D realisation of an alien world. Our fascination with themes of escape to other fantastic places and the thrill of immersion in virtual environments also attracts millions to assume new identities in online virtual worlds.

Now researchers at The University of Nottingham, SRI International in Silicon Valley California, two Canadian universities — Simon Fraser and York — and online games developer Multiverse are to begin a new three-year international project examining online behaviour in virtual gaming environments.

The Virtual Environment Real User Study (Verus) will explore the relationships between the real-world characteristics of gamers and the individual activities and group dynamics of their avatars in online virtual worlds. Investigating how individuals interact within online environments will have many benefits.

Computer generated imagery (CGI) in the movies has made possible unprecedented levels of realism. The imagined other-world setting of Avatar, called Pandora, lived in director James Cameron’s mind for 20 years before CGI could realise his vision — and he also opted for high-definition 3D to involve audiences further.

Cameron, the Oscar-winning director of science-fiction epics like The Terminator, Aliens and The Abyss, sits on the advisory board of one Verus research partner, Multiverse. CGI in movies has developed in tandem with technological advances in computer games development, and some games sales are overtaking movies.

After its launch in November, computer game Modern Warfare 2 became the biggest entertainment product launch in history, yielding sales of $550 million in five days.

Researchers have already been studying virtual world environments, not just to help enhance the entertainment value of online games, but also to increase their effectiveness as tools for teaching and learning, professional training and collaborative work. To date, however, few coordinated investigations of virtual world behaviours and real-world users have been conducted across different cultures.

To address this shortcoming, Verus researchers will recruit volunteers and observe their gaming activity at multiple locations worldwide. The studies will take place in computer laboratories, Internet cafes and other popular gaming environments. In these settings, researchers will interview and track the volunteers as they play online in virtual worlds such as Second Life and World of Warcraft, as well as in other virtual environments that have been specially designed for the project.

Dr Thomas Chesney, Lecturer in Information Systems at Nottingham University Business School, is co-Principal Investigator with Dr John Murray from Silicon Valley-based SRI International, a leading independent non-profit scientific research institute.

Dr Chesney said: “Virtual world interfaces are likely to increase in popularity and they could even become the main way we access information in the future. SRI has assembled an international team with complementary strengths to study virtual world behaviour and it is an honour to be part of that.

“This project has the potential to contribute significantly to our understanding of computer mediated communication,” he added.

John Murray PhD, who leads the project at SRI, said: “We have formed a strong, multidisciplinary team of international researchers and organisations with extensive knowledge of behaviours in virtual worlds, as well as in experimental economics, social and behavioural sciences, education research, linguistics, cognitive engineering and artificial intelligence.”

“We anticipate that the study’s findings will significantly enhance SRI’s existing capabilities in the study and use of virtual worlds, especially for our work for clients in the fields of education, simulation and training.”

The research will be carried out in collaboration with other academic colleagues at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, Canada, and York University in Toronto, Canada. Multiverse, a leading gaming platform developer in California, which will provide specialised virtual environments for the study.

The controlled gaming experiments will take place at Nottingham University Business School in the United Kingdom and at Simon Fraser University and York University in Canada. Research will include human-computer interaction studies, user surveys and questionnaires, on-site participant observations and other ethnographic methods of study.

The team will invite participants to contribute their own perspectives on their avatars (virtual identities) and themselves, and explain how they see and experience the virtual environments in which they play.

Education Professor Suzanne de Castell from Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, Canada, said: “A small sample will be, initially at least, studied more in depth to see whether using technologies like eye tracking and skin temperature may reveal significant objective physiological correlations between players’ real-world states and virtual-world situations and activities.”

Director of Nottingham University Business School in the UK, Professor Leigh Drake, added: “Our expertise in experimental and behavioural economics, and relating to behaviour in virtual worlds, combined with the additional strengths we will contribute from our role in The University of Nottingham’s Horizon Digital Economy Hub, represents a significant contribution to this project.

“We are delighted to be working in partnership with Simon Fraser University and York University in Canada, where we already have strong links with faculty at the Schulich School of Business through our research in issues relating to sustainability and business ethics.”

— Ends —

Notes to editors: Nottingham University Business School is one of the UK’s leading centres for management education and ranks among the world’s leading business schools in the 2009 Financial Times and The Economist 2009 Global Top 100 rankings. In the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE), 70 per cent of the School’s research was rated as either ‘internationally excellent’ or ‘world-leading,’ ranking it 6th in the UK.

The School ranks 1st in the UK, 3rd in Europe and 23rd globally in the Aspen Institute’s Top 100Beyond Grey Pinstripes ranking of the world’s most innovative MBA programmes that lead the way in integrating social, environmental, and ethical issues into management education and research.

The Business School has pioneered entrepreneurship teaching and research at Nottingham and the University won the 2008-2009 Times Higher Education ‘Entrepreneurial University of the Year’ award. The University provides innovative and top quality teaching, undertakes world-changing research, and attracts talented staff and students from 150 nations.

The University of Nottingham provides innovative and top quality teaching, undertakes world-changing research, and attracts talented staff and students from 150 nations. It is ranked in the UK’s Top 10 and the World’s Top 100 universities by the Shanghai Jiao Tong (SJTU) and Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings.

More than 90 per cent of research at The University of Nottingham is of international quality, according to RAE 2008, with almost 60 per cent of all research defined as ‘world-leading’ or ‘internationally excellent’. Research Fortnight analysis of RAE 2008 ranks the University 7th in the UK by research power. In 27 subject areas, the University features in the UK Top Ten, with 14 of those in the Top Five.

Described by The Times as Britain’s “only truly global university”, it has invested continuously in award-winning campuses in the United Kingdom, China and Malaysia. Twice since 2003 its research and teaching academics have won Nobel Prizes. Nottingham has won the Queen’s Award for Enterprise in both 2006 (International Trade) and 2007 (Innovation, School of Pharmacy).

Nottingham was designated as a Science City in 2005 in recognition of its rich scientific heritage, industrial base and role as a leading research centre. Nottingham has since embarked on a wide range of business, property, knowledge transfer and educational initiatives (www.science-city.co.uk) in order to build on its growing reputation as an international centre of scientific excellence. The University of Nottingham is a partner in Nottingham: the Science City.

March 31, 2009

Why did New Hampshire polls not pick Clinton over Obama?

Here comes the science

The release:

Presidential primary 2008 polls: What went wrong

ANN ARBOR, Mich.—University of Michigan survey experts working with the American Association for Public Opinion Research have identified several reasons polls picked the wrong winners in the 2008 Presidential Primary.

The study is believed to be the most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls.

“The most jarring element of the presidential primary polling was that polls picked the wrong winner in New Hampshire,” said U-M polling expert Michael Traugott, who chaired the AAPOR committee composed of leading academic and private sector experts in public opinion and survey research. “We wanted to find out why.”

The results of the committee’s analysis show that a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.

One source of error the researchers were able to eliminate was the so-called ‘Bradley Effect,’ in which people say they support a Black candidate in order to appear unbiased, but then cast their ballots for a white candidate in the privacy of the voting booth.

“Many New Hampshire polls predicted Barack Obama would beat Hillary Clinton in that state,” said Traugott. “So when Clinton won, some people pointed to latent racism as the reason. But in the data we have from a wide variety of New Hampshire pre-election and exit polls, we found no evidence that whites over-represented their support for Obama.”

For the report, supported in part by a grant from the U-M Institute for Social Research (ISR), Traugott and colleagues analyzed individual, household-level response data provided by seven polling organizations. They also compared information on question wording, weighting, interviewer characteristics, sampling frames, and other methodological issues from up to 19 other firms, in many cases relying on publicly available information gleaned from the Internet.

“This analysis suggests some important explanations for the errors in the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary and raises significant questions about pre-election polling methods,” said Richard Kulka, AAPOR president.

“The materials we received from polling organizations showed that there was much more variation in the methodology of pre-election polls than I ever imagined there would be,” Traugott said.

The committee analyzed poll performance in four primary states: Wisconsin, South Carolina, California, and New Hampshire. Although the limited data they received made it impossible to conduct definitive tests of all likely sources of different poll performance, the following factors were identified as the most likely reasons the polls got it wrong:

  • The New Hampshire primaries occurred only five days after the Iowa caucuses, truncating the polling period in New Hampshire. 
  • Most commercial polling firms conducted interviews on the first or second call, but respondents who required more effort to contact were more likely to support Clinton. Instead of reworking their initial samples to reach these hard-to-contact people, pollsters typically added new households to the sample, skewing the results toward the opinions of those who were easy to reach on the phone, and who typically supported Obama. 
  • Non-response patterns, identified by comparing characteristics of the pre-election samples with the exit poll samples, suggest that some groups that supported Clinton—such as union members and those with less education—were under-represented in pre-election polls, possibly because they were more difficult to reach. 
  • The order of candidate names on state primary ballots likely contributed to increased support for Clinton in New Hampshire, where her name appeared near the top of a long list of names and Obama’s appeared near the bottom. 

Traugott noted that the analysis also revealed wide variation in the primary question respondents are asked—the so-called trial heat question about which candidate they prefer in the coming election. In New Hampshire, there were 11 different question wordings used in the Democratic primary, and 10 different wordings used in the Republic primary. In some versions, the candidates’ names were not mentioned at all. In others, only the “major” candidates were named. Some polls randomized the candidates’ names.

“We also learned that some polling firms are buying lists of registered voters with phone numbers, and then they are contacting people with interactive voice response technology—basically computerized calls—and that they’re taking information from the person who answers the phone which may or may not be the person identified in the sample,” Traugott said. “This should be a focus of further research.” Another firm interviewed any registered voter in the household.

 

###

 

ISR survey research expert Robert Groves was a member of the AAPOR committee.

The full report is available on the AAPOR website at www.aapor.org A special panel session on the findings will be held at the AAPOR annual conference in May. Details are available at http://www.aapor.org/2009aaporconference

Established in 1949, the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research (ISR) is among the world’s oldest academic survey research organizations, and a world leader in the development and application of social science methodology. ISR conducts some of the most widely cited studies in the nation, including the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, the American National Election Studies, the Monitoring the Future Study, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Health and Retirement Study, the Columbia County Longitudinal Study, and the National Survey of Black Americans. ISR researchers also collaborate with social scientists in more than 60 nations on the World Values Surveys and other social science research projections.

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